Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.)

Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell in August, adding to the evidence that GDP growth across the region has continued to weaken.

30th August 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Poland Activity Data (Jul.)

The strong batch of Polish activity data for July suggests that the economy continued to grow at around 5% y/y at the start of Q3.

22nd August 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Jul.)

Russian activity for July suggest that the economy continued to grow at a steady pace between Q2 and the start of Q3. Our Tracker is consistent with GDP growth of about 2.5% y/y and, while the Tracker...

17th August 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2)

GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019.

14th August 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia GDP (Q2 2018)

The pick-up in Russian GDP growth, to 1.8% y/y in Q2, was a bit weaker than we had expected and there is now a downside risk to our growth forecast of 2.3% for the year as a whole. Even so, we think...

10th August 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia CPI (Jul.)

The small rise in Russian headline inflation, to 2.5% y/y, was driven by higher food inflation, while underlying price pressures still look very soft. We still think the central bank will lower...

6th August 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey CPI (Jul.)

The rise in Turkish inflation to a 15-year high of 15.8% y/y last month, coming alongside further lira weakness following the imposition of US sanctions, strengthens the case for interest rate hikes...

3rd August 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.)

July’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe made a soft start to Q3. What’s more, the surveys provide evidence that price pressures are building across most of the region.

1st August 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.)

Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but it still suggests that GDP growth across the region held up well at the...

30th July 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Jun.)

June’s activity data for Russia were a bit soft, but remain consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth from 1.3% y/y in Q1 to around 2.5% y/y in Q2.

18th July 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production (May)

The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for May, at first sight, suggest that the economy has weathered the recent financial market turmoil, but we doubt that this resilience...

17th July 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia CPI (Jun.)

The modest decline in Russian inflation in June, to 2.3% y/y, was mainly a result of a sharp fall in fruit and vegetable inflation. And while headline inflation is still weak, there were some...

6th July 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey CPI (Jun.)

The much stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in June, to 15.4% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates, perhaps by 100bp, at its meeting later this month.

3rd July 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)

Last month’s manufacturing PMIs made for disappointing reading in most of Emerging Europe. After plunging to a nine-year low in May, the Turkish survey remained weak in June, suggesting that the...

2nd July 2018 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Data Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.)

At a regional level, Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, supporting our view that regional GDP growth peaked in Q3 2017.

28th June 2018 · 1 min read