Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The continued weakness of Turkey’s PMI provides further evidence that the economy has fallen into a deep recession. Elsewhere, the drop in the Czech PMI last month suggests that softness in the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) Our weighted average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell to an 11-month low in October, suggesting that GDP growth across the region continued to slow at the... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Polish activity data for September were softer than expected and suggest that GDP growth weakened from 5.1% y/y in Q2 to 4.5% y/y in Q3. This slowdown is likely to continue over the next few quarters. 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The softness of the Russian activity data for September means that overall GDP growth probably weakened to around 1.5% y/y in Q3 (from 1.9% y/y in Q2). That said, there are still reasons to think that... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production held up better-than-expected in August but there are clear signs that underlying growth in the sector is losing momentum. The effects of the recent currency crisis and... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Balance of Payments (Aug.) Turkey’s current account position improved further in August adding to the evidence that a weaker lira is helping the economy to rebalance. But this adjustment has almost entirely reflect a slump in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungarian CPI (Sep.) We think that the unexpected drop in Czech inflation last month, to 2.3% y/y, will persuade the MPC to pause its tightening cycle at next month’s meeting. Elsewhere, a further rise in inflation in... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Russian inflation, to 3.4% y/y, last month was driven mainly by a pick-up in food inflation, but core price pressures stayed soft. That, coming alongside the recent stabilisation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 24.5% y/y in September increases the chances of another interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. But given the scale of last month’s rate... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The sharp drop in Turkey’s PMI last month chimes with other very weak survey data and adds to the evidence that the economy has entered a deep recession. Elsewhere, big falls in the PMIs from Central... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) Our weighted average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) fell to a ten-month low in September, suggesting that GDP growth in the region has continued to slow in... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) Polish activity data for August were strong and suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a rapid 5% y/y in Q3. The risks to our 2018 GDP growth forecast of 4.3% lie to the upside. 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity figures for August showed a slump in the agricultural sector, which is likely to cause GDP growth to weaken in Q3. The experience from the past decade is that these... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The much stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production for July suggest that the boost to competitiveness from the fall in the lira in May and June has supported the sector. But these predate... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2018) The Turkish economy grew at a strong pace of 5.2% y/y in Q2 but the monthly activity data show that there was a loss of momentum towards the end of the quarter. More timely figures point to a steep... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.1% y/y in August, combined with Governor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments yesterday, will add fuel to expectations for an interest rate hike. But with underlying price... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read