Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Turkish inflation in December, combined with the weakness of the latest activity and the recovery in the lira, means that the central bank is likely to press ahead with a rate cut... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s weak manufacturing PMI will strengthen the Turkish central bank’s case that monetary policy should be loosened. We think that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is more likely... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Nov.) Russian activity data for November add to the evidence that, after expanding by a tepid 1.5% y/y in Q3, the economy has regained momentum in Q4. We expect that this recovery will be sustained over the... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for October suggest that, after contracting in Q3, the economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q4. Weak economic growth... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2018) The effects of August’s currency crisis caused Turkey’s economy to contract in Q3 and more timely evidence suggests that the downturn deepened in Q4. Our forecast that GDP will fall by 0.5% over 2019... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation, to 3.8% y/y in November, from 3.5% y/y in October, was driven entirely by higher food inflation. As a result, while the central bank Board meeting next Friday will be a... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s PMIs suggest that Central European industrial production growth will weaken markedly in the final months of 2018. Even so, with other sectors holding up well, that’s unlikely to result in a... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The greater-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 21.6% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank pushes ahead with an interest cut in the coming months. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) Our weighted average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) rose in November, suggesting that regional growth remained at around 4.5% y/y in Q4. 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Polish activity data for October were stronger than expected and suggest that the economy continued to motor along at a rapid pace at the start of Q4. 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The improvement in the Russian activity data in October suggests that, after growing by a disappointing 1.3% y/y in Q3, the economy regained momentum at the start of Q4. We expect this recovery to be... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Sep.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for September add to the evidence that the economy is entering a deep recession. Our GDP growth forecasts lie well below the consensus. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3) Faster GDP growth in Poland and Hungary reinforces our view that central banks in both countries will begin to tighten monetary policy over the coming quarters. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2018) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 1.3% y/y, appears to have been driven by broad-based weakness across the economy. But the early signs are that growth will recover in Q4, and we still... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Russian inflation, to 3.5% y/y, last month supports our view that the central bank will refrain from tightening monetary policy further. Markets, in contrast... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in October, to 25.2% y/y, is unlikely to prompt further interest rate hikes from the central bank. Instead, the main risk is that, with pipeline... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
