Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy formally entered into recession in the final quarter of last year and, while the worst of the downturn may now have passed, the weak carryover means that we expect GDP to decline... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The reasonably small rise in Russian inflation, from 5.0% y/y in January to 5.2% y/y in February, is likely to offer further reassurance to the central bank that a recent VAT hike hasn’t fed into a... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s strong batch of ESIs suggest that resilient domestic demand is helping the economies of Central and Eastern Europe to cope with economic weakness in Germany. 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) January’s Polish industrial production data will help to allay fears about an abrupt slowdown. But it still appears that Poland’s economy as a whole lost steam at the start of this year and, as... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2018) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that growth in the region held up pretty well at the end of last year – especially considering the ongoing weakness in Germany. Even so, growth still... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Dec.) The bigger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in December adds to the evidence that the economy performed terribly in the final quarter of last year. We think that GDP may have... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The softer-than-expected Russian inflation figure for January, of 5.0% y/y, is likely to temper some of the central bank’s hawkish rhetoric when the Board meets on Friday. Given the central bank’s... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2018) The stronger-than-expected Russian 2018 GDP growth figure of 2.3% suggests that Rosstat has made significant upwards revisions to the quarterly growth figures for the first half of last year. Based on... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) The slight rise in Turkish inflation in January was driven by higher food inflation but even so, coupled with the hawkish tone of the central bank’s latest Inflation Report, it probably means that... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Another soft batch of PMI data from Central Europe suggests that the continued weakness of euro-zone industry is weighing heavily on the region’s export-led manufacturing sectors. On past form, the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2018 GDP, which showed an expansion of 5.1% over the year as a whole, suggests that the economy slowed in Q4. Inventories appear to have exerted a sizeable... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) A weak batch of ESIs for January supports our view that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe will slow by more than more expect over the course of 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Russian activity data for December suggests that the economy weakened at the end of last year. Even so, GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was probably a little stronger than it was in Q3... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) A soft batch of December activity data suggests that GDP growth slowed a touch at the end of last year. Over 2018 as a whole, it appears that the Polish economy grew by a robust 5%, but the slowdown... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) A strong batch of ESIs for December provided some positive news for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the recent release of a poor set of PMIs and a raft of weak activity... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
