Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The steeper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August leaves the door wide open for the central bank to cut interest rates aggressively again when the MPC meets next week. We have pencilled in... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The batch of August PMIs released for Central Europe were a reassuring improvement following the plunge in July but remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial output over the coming... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q rise in Turkish GDP in Q2 has prompted us to revise up our 2019 GDP forecast to -0.8% (previously -1.8%). But there’s a growing risk that policymakers’ efforts to... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for August suggest that regional growth remained strong in Q3 at a little under 4% y/y. 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The batch of Polish activity data for July suggest that strong domestic demand is offsetting weakness in export-led sectors. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth edged just below 4% y/y at the start... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) July’s Russia activity data suggest that, after recovering slightly in Q2, the economy may have lost a bit of momentum at the start of Q3. This, combined with easing inflationary pressures, will leave... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The 3.7% m/m fall in Turkish industrial production in June adds to the evidence that GDP growth in Q2 was much weaker than in Q1. Leading indicators suggest that the scale of the fall in output was... 16th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2019) The strength of the Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe suggests that domestic demand continued to offset the impact of euro-zone weakness. However, there are signs that soft external demand is... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2019) The slightly better-than-expected 0.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q2, up from 0.5% y/y in Q1, is likely to be followed by a further improvement in the second half of the year. But growth is still... 12th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (July) The decline in Russian inflation to 4.6% y/y last month – coming alongside the stability of the ruble this week – adds weight to our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by a further... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Turkish inflation in July is likely to be temporary and followed by chunky falls in the coming months. Accordingly, so long as the lira remains stable, the central bank will follow up last... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) July’s batch of manufacturing PMIs point to a sharp slowdown in industrial output across Central Europe at the start of Q3. While the hard activity data have so far defied the weak messages painted by... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for July suggest that growth across Central and Eastern Europe held steady at a decent 3.5% y/y or so at the start of Q3. Strength in consumer... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) June’s weak batch of activity data came after two strong months and suggests that after growing by an impressive 4.7% y/y in Q1, the economy maintained a similar pace in Q2. 19th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) June’s activity data suggest that following a weak Q1, Russian GDP growth slowed in Q2. This, combined with soft inflationary pressures, supports our view that the central bank will cut rates next... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production figures for May suggest that the economy may just have avoided a fresh fall in GDP in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect the economic recovery will be... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
