Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2019) The pick-up in Russian GDP growth to 1.7% y/y in Q3 appears to have been driven by a turnaround in the agricultural and wholesale trade sectors. But even though growth has strengthened, falling... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The decline in Russian inflation to 3.8% y/y in October is likely to be followed by further falls in the coming months, providing scope for the central bank’s easing cycle to run a little further. We... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The drop in Turkish inflation last month probably marks the trough and inflation is likely to rise over the coming months. Pressure from President Erdogan and recent sanguine inflation forecasts from... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The weak Russian and Czech manufacturing PMIs for October provide reason to expect the country’s industrial sectors to continue to struggle. Meanwhile, even though the Turkish PMI fell last month, it... 1st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for October provided firmer evidence that weakness in manufacturing sectors in Central and Eastern Europe is now spreading to consumer... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September suggest that GDP growth slowed from 4.5% y/y in Q2 to 3.8-4.0% y/y in Q3. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The soft Russian activity data for September suggest that GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was in line with Q2’s sluggish outturn of 0.9% y/y. Coming alongside low inflation, another 25bp interest rate... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in August is likely to prove a bump in the road, with more timely survey evidence pointing to a recovery over the coming months. That... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The fall in Russian inflation to the central bank’s target of 4.0% y/y in September is likely to be followed by a further decline in the headline rate over the coming months. We currently expect an... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s steep fall in Turkish inflation, taking it back into single digits, was flattered by base effects and the headline rate will rise again later this year. Even so, these figures mean that... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for September suggest that growth held steady at 4.0% y/y in Q3. But with the industrial surveys deeply negative and signs that... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The relatively weak batch of Polish activity data for August suggest that euro-zone weakness is taking an increasing toll on the Polish economy. Our GDP Tracker points to growth slowing from 4.4% y/y... 20th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity data for August suggest that the economy maintained a steady, if not inspiring, pace of growth in Q3. With growth unlikely to pick up markedly over the rest of the year... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Current Account (Jul.) The chunky 4.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in July confirms that June’s dip in output was a blip. Meanwhile, the current account position has continued to improve. But efforts to turbo... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to a weaker-than-expected 4.3% y/y last month strengthens our view that the central bank will lower its policy rate by 25bp when it meets tomorrow. Soft underlying price... 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
