Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2020) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe confirmed that the region’s industry-heavy economies suffered the largest hit in the crisis, while Poland and Bulgaria managed to escape double-digit... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkish industrial production and retail sales continued to rebound strongly in June but even so it looks like the slump in GDP over Q2 as a whole is likely to have been in the region of 20% q/q or so... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2020) The smaller-than-expected fall in Russian GDP of 8.5% y/y in Q2 confirms that the downturn in Russia’s economy wasn’t as bad as had been feared as the crisis unfolded earlier this year. The early... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.4% y/y in July is likely to be followed by a further modest increase over the next few months, but this shouldn’t prevent the central bank from cutting the policy... 6th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) Turkish inflation eased by more than expected in July, to 11.8% y/y, but this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle. Indeed, with pressure on the lira building, the next... 4th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The further rise in the manufacturing PMIs across Central Europe in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at the start of Q3. But the fall in Russia’s PMI last month adds to... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The further rise in the Economic Sentiment Indicators in July adds to the evidence that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe are steadily recovering from the sharp downturn in Q2. That said... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) The rebound in Polish industrial production and retail sales in June suggests that the contraction in GDP in Q2 may be in the order of 4% y/y, much smaller than the 8-9% y/y we had expected. Activity... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Turkish activity data for May show that industrial production and retail sales recovered from their low point in April but it still looks like Turkey suffered one of the largest contractions in Q2... 13th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Russian inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in June and we think that it will rise a bit further over the coming months. But this increase should prove temporary and inflation is likely to remain below the... 8th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in Turkish inflation in June, to 12.6% y/y, as well as last week’s surprise decision by the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged, reinforces our view that the easing cycle is over... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun. 2020) The rise in the manufacturing PMIs in June provide further signs that economic output recovered strongly at the end of Q2 as lockdown measures were lifted. While we would caution that the PMIs may... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) The broad-based rise in June’s Economic Sentiment Indicators provide further signs that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe started to get back on their feet at the end of Q2. That said, the... 29th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish activity data for May show that activity in the retail sector bounced back more quickly than in the industrial sector as lockdown measures were lifted. Even so, the figures support our... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The plunge in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the economy suffered a almighty hit to GDP in Q2 – we expect the economy to suffer one of the largest contractions... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) Russian inflation eased to 3.0% y/y in May and the underlying picture is that inflation has been much weaker than many expected just a few months ago. Price pressures are likely to remain muted which... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
