Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2020) The Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that all countries other than Poland grew at the end of 2020. But there was a marked divergence across the region that can be partly explained... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q4 2020) GDP figures show that Poland’s economy contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q4, which is likely to have been among the larger falls across Europe. Containment measures are likely to be lifted slowly in a few... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for December add to the evidence that the economic recovery slowed sharply at the tail end of 2020. This weakness has almost certainly carried... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a near two-year high of 5.2% y/y in January will remove any chance of an interest rate cut in the coming months. The central bank will wait for evidence that... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose again in January and may edge up a little further in the next few months, but we think that the central bank has probably done enough to convince investors that... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2020) The surprise 0.3% q/q growth in Czech GDP in Q4 was much better than expected as strength in industry more than offset weakness in services. This suggests that, despite being hit hard by a renewed... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2020) The full-year decline in Russian GDP of 3.1% in 2020 suggests that the economy expanded slightly in Q4 as the authorities opted for light-touch containment measures in response to the second virus... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs for January were encouraging in Turkey and Russia and strong export performance continued to support Poland’s manufacturing sector. That said, there are further signs that... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2020) The 2.8% decline in Polish GDP over 2020 was the worst performance since the collapse of communism and is consistent with the economy contracting by around 1.3% q/q in Q4. While prolonged containment... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators were mixed across Central Europe in January but broadly point to a weak start to activity in Q1. The services sector in particular continued to struggle amid... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) Polish activity data for December showed that industry continued to boom and the easing of virus restrictions supported a rebound in retail sales, with the result being that any contraction in GDP... 25th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for November indicate that the economic recovery remained strong in the middle of Q4. But more timely indicators suggest that a combination of a... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators rebounded strongly in Central Europe in December and suggest that the slump in GDP in Q4 was smaller than we feared. But large virus outbreaks through the winter... 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs for December provided encouraging signs that output and new orders continued to rise strongly. However, the surveys also provide evidence that supply chain disruptions and raw... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate, to 14.6% y/y in December, is unlikely to be enough to push the central bank (CBRT) towards additional monetary tightening. Even so, with the CBRT... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Nov.) Russian activity data for November suggest that, despite the sharp rise in new COVID-19 cases and tightening of virus restrictions, the economy may come through Q4 suffering only a minor slowdown. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
