Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further jump in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 19.0% y/y in July is unlikely to trigger an interest rate hike but it will delay the start of an easing cycle until the back end of this year... 3rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The PMIs for July suggest that supply chain disruptions weighed on output in Czechia and Poland and continued to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the releases suggest that manufacturing... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2 2021) The disappointing 0.6% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q2 suggests that industry may have fared worse than expected as input shortages took a greater toll on output. With virus restrictions easing... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a surprising fall in regional sentiment in July, but we suspect that this was a blip rather than the start of a trend. We still expect growth to be strong... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russian activity data for June showed that the economy expanded at a solid pace in Q2, with overall GDP probably returning to just shy of its pre-pandemic level. While the re-opening boost will fade... 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Poland Activity Data (Jun.) Polish industrial production and retail sales figures for June suggest that the rebound in economic activity softened a touch at the end of Q2, but GDP still looks to have expanded by 2.0% q/q in Q2... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in headline inflation in Israel to a near 8-year high of 1.7% y/y in June was largely a result of base effects that pushed up food inflation. The muted 0.1% m/m rise in prices suggests that... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Turkey’s activity figures for May, the month of a three-week national lockdown, showed that the industrial sector came through unscathed but that retail sales were hit hard. More timely evidence... 13th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Russian inflation to a stronger-than-expected 6.5% y/y in June means the central bank (CBR) is likely to up the pace of tightening when it meets in a couple of weeks. A 75bp hike... 7th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fresh rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 17.5% y/y in June, coupled with signs of a strong rebound in activity after May’s three-week lockdown, means that an interest rate cut in the next... 5th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (June) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a further rise in regional sentiment in June, driven by improvements in retail and services sectors. That said, there is also continued evidence of... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) Polish retail sales rebounded strongly in May as restrictions were lifted, while industry continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP looks set to return to its pre-virus level in Q2 and we expect the... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (May) The rise in inflation in Israel to 1.5% y/y in May was partly driven by food and energy, but there are some signs that underlying price pressures have increased. We think that inflation will rise... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The m/m falls in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in April are likely to be followed by further weakness in May (when a three-week lockdown was in place). This supports our view that the... 11th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in May was driven by broad-based increases in both food and non-food goods and we think that the balance of factors is now firmly tilted... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
