EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t make a compelling case for EM assets The valuations of EM assets are not particularly low, which is one reason why we expect EM financial markets to suffer along with those elsewhere as the global economy disappoints in the coming... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations are little cause for optimism Most EM assets have yet to recover from their sharp falls in 2018, meaning that in many cases their valuations are still much lower than they were a year or so ago. But we wouldn’t interpret that as a... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Short-term pain, long-term gain for EM equities? Although the gap between the valuations of equities in emerging and developed markets has widened recently, and is now quite large by historical standards, this is no guarantee that the former will... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM corporate credit spreads appear unsustainably low Aside from a brief drop in July, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have generally been rising in recent months and are well above their January troughs. Nonetheless, corporate credit spreads in... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations should limit weakness in EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have continued to slip against the dollar, probably in large part due to rising bond yields in the US and a global increase in risk aversion. We suspect that US... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Equity valuations unlikely to lend near-term support The price/forward earnings ratio of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has fallen back a touch as the index has had a bumpy start to the year. We doubt that valuations will provide any support over... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM credit spreads likely to rise further EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM currencies do not appear overvalued Although EM currencies are much stronger on average against the dollar now than they were at the start of 2017, most of them still do not appear significantly overvalued. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low EM credit spreads may last a while longer Even though emerging market (EM) credit spreads are generally very low by past standards, we do not think that a surge is around the corner. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations of EM equities don’t look stretched Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has rallied by more than 20% this year, this gain has primarily been driven by expectations of faster earnings growth. As a result, its valuation is no... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How long will EM credit spreads remain so low? Emerging market (EM) credit spreads ticked down again over the past month and generally appear low by the standards of the past. We think that they will pick up only a little this year and next, but... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will EM equities’ valuations continue to climb? The latest surge in emerging market (EM) equities has seen the price/12 month forward earnings ratio of the MSCI EM Index climb further above its long-run average. Nonetheless, we still think that... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Should we worry about low EM credit spreads? Following a long-lasting decline, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have rarely been much lower than they are now since the financial crisis. This does not mean that they are bound to pick up any... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How stretched are the valuations of EM equities? Emerging market equities have continued to climb over the past month. Their rise has been partly fuelled by an increase in earnings. Valuations have also picked up, although they still do not look... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Is the strength of EM currencies set to last? Although they have generally appreciated in recent months, few EM currencies appear much stronger than their “fair value”. This feeds into our view that most will hold up fairly well over the next few... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
