EM Markets Chart Pack Monetary easing unlikely to drive a sustained rally Hopes that much looser monetary policy, particularly in the US, will prevent more weakness in the global economy have supported emerging market (EM) assets recently, but we doubt that this will last. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM corporate earnings likely to disappoint The rally in EM equities has continued over the past month, seemingly driven by the view that recent weakness in the global economy will not last, as policymakers in the US and China in particular... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM rally stalling, likely to go into reverse The rally in EM assets of the past few months has started to falter in recent days on the back of some poor economic data around the world, and signs that a US-China trade deal may be further away... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities’ strong start to the year not likely to last We think that the recent rise in the MSCI EM Index, and the particularly strong performance of equities in China and most of the rest of EM Asia, will reverse in the coming months. 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM dollar bond yields likely to rise even further The yield of the JP Morgan EMBI Global has edged up over the past month as a whole, despite a slump in underlying Treasury yields. We expect this pattern to be repeated next year. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities likely to remain on the ropes Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has recovered a little in the past couple of weeks, it is still below its level a month ago, and we suspect that it will fall much further by the end of... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Trouble for EM assets probably far from over Even though emerging market (EM) assets generally weakened again over the past month, and some have now fallen a very long way, we still forecast that there is considerably more pain to come. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Turkey’s crisis just one of many threats to EM assets The main factor weighing on EM assets recently has been worries about contagion from the crisis in Turkey. But even if these fears subside, there are plenty of other reasons to be pessimistic about... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities likely to struggle even if trade worries ease Emerging market (EM) equities have been caught up in the more general sell-off in EM assets in the past month, with the MSCI EM Index dropping by about 3% in local currency terms. Even if recent... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will the slide in EM currencies continue? Emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen sharply on average against the dollar since the middle of last month, and we forecast that they will weaken further between now and the end of next year. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Credit spreads likely to rise again before long Emerging market (EM) credit spreads have stabilised recently after a slight pick-up in early February on the back of the sell-off in global equity markets. But this may just be a temporary respite. In... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM assets vulnerable to further falls in US equities The recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) equities after the US stock market slumped reiterated how exposed they are to movements in developed market equities. Although EM equities have since... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What will 2018 bring for EM local currency bonds? Despite the prospect of more monetary tightening in the US than investors are anticipating next year, we think that local factors will have more of a bearing on monetary policy in emerging markets... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM currencies withstand the Fed? After a big rally earlier in the year, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar recently as US rate expectations have picked up. We doubt that much larger falls are around the... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack How vulnerable are EM corporate bonds? Emerging market (EM) corporate bond spreads are around their lowest since the onset of the global financial crisis. We think that they will remain low for the next year and a half or so – but expect... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM equities’ rapid ascent continue? We expect EM equities to rise this year and next, but not at anything like the pace that they have done so far in 2017. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has returned around 20% so far this year... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
