ECB Watch Is the ECB ready to take the plunge into QE? The ECB is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% this month, where they should remain for some time. But after last month’s hints that further unconventional policies could be... 30th April 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Any hints of asset purchases? With the euro-zone recession still gathering pace, we see the ECB cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points to 1.0% this month. Indeed, it should not be long before rates reach 0.5%. But the... 26th March 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another step towards zero, but still no plan for QE With the euro-zone recession deepening, the ECB is almost certain to deliver the 50bp interest rate cut that President Trichet signalled last month. What’s more, we expect hints of further cuts to... 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB worryingly cautious President Trichet’s continued insistence that the next “important” monetary policy meeting will not be until March has more or less ruled out an interest rate cut this month. We still think that weak... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB making slow progress Given the latest sharp fall in inflation and mounting evidence that the euro-zone economy is in the midst of a severe downturn, we see the ECB cutting interest rates by 50bp this month. Indeed, as it... 8th January 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to deliver 50bp, but probably no more just yet While the latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is not prepared to slash interest rates quite as aggressively as some other central banks, at least another 50bp reduction this month seems like... 27th November 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another 50bps now and much more to come Severe strains in financial markets and a rapid deterioration in economic conditions have finally prompted a turnaround in the ECB’s previously hawkish stance. This supports our long-held view that... 30th October 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Stubbornly focused on inflation risks Recent ECB communications have maintained a stubbornly hawkish tone, despite extreme tension in financial markets and growing evidence of weak activity. This month’s press statement is unlikely to... 25th September 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Staff forecasts to highlight weaker growth prospects Mounting evidence of a sharp slowdown in eurozone economic activity has caused the chances of another interest rate hike to evaporate. But the ECB is still deeply concerned about upside risks to... 28th August 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Slowing activity will eventually prompt rate cuts Ongoing fears over the inflation outlook will leave the ECB in a fairly hawkish mood for now. But recent signs that the economy is stagnating (at best) support our view that interest rates will not... 31st July 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate hike will prove to be a one-off The ECB will deliver the signalled interest rate hike this month, despite further evidence of a slowdown in economic activity in the euro-zone. Inflation fears could keep the Bank in hawkish mode for... 26th June 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still talking tough, but next move will be down ECB President Trichet will maintain a familiarly hawkish tone at June’s press conference, perhaps adding to speculation that interest rates could yet rise further. We still expect inflation to... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate cuts still some months away We expect the lack of a significant softening in the ECB’s hawkish tone at May’s press conference to confirm that the Bank is unlikely to cut interest rates for some months yet. But as the economy... 1st May 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Not ready to signal rate cut The ECB seems likely to maintain a hawkish tone at April’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, suggesting that it has no immediate plans to cut interest rates. But as the economy slows... 3rd April 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Cracks in ECB's hawkish stance to widen We suspect that suggestions that the ECB will signal an imminent cut in interest rates at March’s Governing Council meeting will be disappointed. Nonetheless, with the new staff economic forecasts... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Interest rates heading for 3.0%, eventually The ECB is likely to maintain a hawkish stance at February’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, denting hopes that it might cut interest rates within a couple of months. But with the... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
