ECB Watch Balance marginally in favour of rate cut Having stated following its last meeting that it stood ready to act, it would be a big disappointment if the ECB did nothing at the forthcoming meeting on May 2nd. On balance, we think that an... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer tone but no action The crisis in Cyprus, together with the continued deterioration in indicators of euro-zone economic activity, should lead the ECB to strike a more supportive tone at this month’s press conference. But... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Support for Italy would come with strings attached The renewed deterioration in some indicators of economic activity and fears about the political situation in Italy should prompt the ECB to strike a softer tone after its next meeting. President... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to shrug off currency concerns The continued improvement in financial market conditions and surveys of economic activity has taken some of the pressure off the ECB this month. We expect the Bank to strike a relatively hawkish tone... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A testing new year Having prevented catastrophe in 2012 by pledging to do whatever it takes to save the euro, the European Central Bank will have to follow words with actions in 2013. While no policy changes are likely... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still standing ready Having boldly pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro back in the summer, ECB President Mario Draghi has struck a noticeably more cautious tone over recent months. We expect more of the same... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB adamant about conditions for bond buying The ECB seems set to remain on standby this month. With just the announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme still buoying market sentiment, the Bank has yet to be called upon... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Providing little more clarity on OMTs Having been lauded as being “as mighty as the Fed” after unleashing a policy “bazooka” in the form of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme in September, the ECB is unlikely to announce... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Bond purchases on hold, but other measures possible We expect the ECB to disappoint markets this week with its plans for peripheral government bond purchases. President Mario Draghi is likely to state that such purchases will be limited and that they... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More bond purchases, but no boost for the ESM Despite President Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, the ECB appears unlikely to follow up July’s interest rate cut with further significant policy announcements at... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A rate cut but no more With the euro-zone’s debt crisis intensifying again and the economic downturn deepening and broadening, we think that the ECB will opt to cut interest rates by 25bps in July. But the Bank seems... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB provide more support? The further escalation of the euro-zone crisis has intensified the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take further remedial action. But while President Draghi may hold open the prospect of... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch No response to weaker growth At its forthcoming policy meeting, the ECB will resist pressure for it to take bolder action to solve the euro-zone’s problems. Despite acknowledging that the economic outlook has deteriorated... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Close to the limit? Following the apparent success of the ECB’s recent LTROs, the Governing Council meeting on April 4th is unlikely to produce any further significant policy measures. While acknowledging the ECB’s duty... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Credit crunch risks have not evaporated Having agreed to forego profits on its Greek government bonds and pumped billions more into the banking system over the past month, the ECB is unlikely to announce any major policy changes at its... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB take a haircut? While the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep interest rates unchanged again at its February policy meeting, President Draghi will no doubt use the following press conference to stress the... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
