ECB Watch ECB to hint strongly at QE and ultimately deliver The ECB finally seems to be facing facts, withPresident Mario Draghi conceding at Jackson Holethat the economy is too weak and that inflationexpectations have dropped. We do not expect anyaction this... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold despite deflation risk With the measures announced in June seeming tohave some positive effects on financial marketconditions, the ECB is unlikely to announceadditional policy support this month. But furthersigns of... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold to gauge effect of new policies The ECB is very unlikely to unveil additional policy support at its policy meeting on 3rd July as it waits to judge the effect of the raft of measures announced in June. President Draghi is likely to... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate cut and lending incentives unlikely to be enough A small cut in the ECB’s main refinancing rate seems like a done deal this month and is likely to be accompanied by a reduction in the deposit rate to below zero. The Bank also seems set to offer more... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Dovish tone to hint at action next month We doubt that recent events and data releases have been significant enough to ensure more policy action from the ECB at its May meeting. But developments in the inflation outlook and in money markets... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB Watch - More policy action still ahead Developments over the last month have not clearly met either of the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action. Nonetheless, the ongoing danger of deflation and dovish signals from several... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another small rate cut? While the euro-zone activity data has continued to show some improvement, the combination of very low inflation, the strong euro and falling liquidity in the banking sector has maintained pressure on... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB needs to follow words with action With the strong euro maintaining the risk of deflation in the euro-zone and inter-bank interest rates edging higher, the ECB’s Governing Council will need to follow up President Mario Draghi’s dovish... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB has more work to do in 2014 The ECB’s Governing Council appears unlikely to make any substantive policy changes at its first policy meeting of the year on 9th January. But the ongoing combination of weak economic growth, a... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Time to talk about the euro? Last month's cut in interest rates has not lifted the pressure on the ECB to provide more support for the fragile economic recovery. Accordingly, President Draghi may make a more concerted effort to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer stance With the economic recovery still pretty fragile, the euro climbing higher and inflation falling sharply, President Draghi may adopt a slightly softer stance at the ECB’s interest rate press conference... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More LTROs in the pipeline? The firmer tone of the economic data has ruled out any change in interest rates at the ECB Governing Council meeting on 2nd October, while the US Federal Reserve’s recent communication problems will... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi won't firm up his guidance While the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic prospects suggests that a further cut in interest rates is unlikely in the near future, President Draghi will no doubt repeat the relatively... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Moving towards a rate cut? With indicators of economic activity improving slightly, the ECB is unlikely to cut interest rates this month. Meanwhile, divisions within the Governing Council might prevent it from clarifying last... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still mulling more support; exit remains distant With the news that the US Fed is set to taper its QE programme hitting euro-zone financial markets, President Draghi should provide reassurance about ongoing ECB policy support at the forthcoming... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Surveying the zero bound with caution After cutting interest rates last month and hinting that more support might be to come, we suspect that the ECB will disappoint markets at its forthcoming policy meeting and press conference... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
