ECB Watch ECB may bide its time, but action needed very soon The European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from loosening policy this month following the Bank of England’s inaction. But the Brexit vote has increased what were already significant downside risks to... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to be dovish but stress that ECB can’t do it all The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish tone at its forthcoming policy meeting on 2nd June, forecasting below target inflation and holding open the door to further policy... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi will be dovish, but ECB nearing its limits President Draghi will respond to German politicians’ recent criticism of the ECB’s ultra-loose policy at the meeting on 21st April by reiterating the Bank’s independence and stressing that more... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch The ECB can’t afford to disappoint again The ECB has signalled a further loosening of monetary policy at its forthcoming meeting on 10 th March. And while December’s under-deliverance highlights the risk of another disappointment, the... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold for now, but doves will win in the end After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB meet expectations? The question is not whether the ECB’s Governing Council will loosen monetary policy at its meeting on December 3rd, but rather whether it will do so decisively enough to meet the very strong... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE expansion coming soon if not this month Recent comments from Governing Council members suggest that the ECB may not be ready to increase its policy support when it meets on 22nd October. But President Draghi is likely to reiterate concerns... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Euro’s rise puts Draghi under pressure again The rise in the euro exchange rate has put the onus on the ECB to maintain and perhaps increase monetary policy support. We doubt that the Bank will announce any policy changes following its meeting... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may have to play both villain and hero The ECB’s Governing Council may have to playboth villain and hero over the coming week, effectively forcing Greece out of the euro-zone bypulling the plug on Greek banks’ life support and then... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to keep foot hard on the QE pedal While no policy changes are in prospect at the ECB Governing Council meeting on 3rd June, markets will be watching closely for President Mario Draghi’s latest thoughts on the effectiveness of the Bank... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to downplay early taper talk The ECB’s quantitative easing programme has got off to a solid start with the Bank buying the planned quantity of assets and financial markets responding positively. And with the recovery seeming to... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain a hard line on Greece The ECB is unlikely to announce any new policies after its meeting next week as it prepares to implement the quantitative easing programme unveiled in January. President Draghi will claim that QE is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE may disappoint high expectations It is virtually certain that the ECB will announce some form of quantitative easing (QE) at its Governing Council meeting on January 22nd. But given the ECB’s natural caution and Germany’s objections... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE’s coming, probably in January It seems clear that the ECB will soon embark on a full-blown quantitative easing programme incorporating sovereign debt purchases. The key questions now are when and how big? While we think that the... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Political pressure keeping lid on QE for now The ECB seems unlikely to announce any new policies this month as it continues to purchase small quantities of covered bonds and prepares to buy asset-backed securities. With the risk of deflation... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for QE The ECB now seems to be taking deflation risks more seriously, implementing surprise interest rate cuts in September and leaving the door wide open to quantitative easing. With the economy apparently... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
