Commodities Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Watch Palladium to outperform platinum if AMCU strike There is a significant risk that the ongoing wage negotiations between platinum group metals (PGM) producers in South Africa and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) will lead... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Melancholy to persist this year After some fleeting optimism on the back of an apparent easing in US-China trade tensions in September, the recent run of weak US survey data saw demand concerns return to the fore. We think that... 3rd October 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Seasonal factors to boost gas and coal prices in Q4 Energy prices diverged in September. There were strong gains in European gas and coal prices in part owing to strikes at France’s utilities at a time when seasonal demand is also picking up. Meanwhile... 3rd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks increased last week as inputs to refineries fell. We expect crude stocks to continue to rise in the coming months as a weaker US economy leads to softer growth in gasoline demand. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Still too soon to turn positive Oil prices dipped in September despite the attacks on Saudi Aramco. In contrast, the prices of most other commodities increased owing to a rise in investor risk appetite. However, we expect US... 1st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Commodities Weekly Little on the horizon to lift investor sentiment As the fall-out from the attacks on Aramco began to fade, the spotlight swung firmly back to concerns about global economic activity this week with falls in the prices of most industrial commodities... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output rebounds, expat levy, Thomas Cook Saudi Arabia has managed to get the bulk of its oil output back online following the Abqaiq attacks but, with oil prices drifting back towards $60pb, the debate may quickly shift to the need to extend... 26th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose on the back of higher US production and a fall in crude inputs to refineries. Stocks could ease back again in the month ahead if the loss of Saudi oil lifts demand for US crude... 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Aug.) Gold imports in China and India remained extremely weak in August. With local currency prices likely to stay elevated, and growth in China set to slow, a turnaround in demand is unlikely anytime soon. 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Watch It can only get better for natural rubber In this Commodities Watch, we are initiating coverage of natural rubber. As it stands, supply is more than ample at a time of subdued demand. The vehicle and tyre sectors, the main end-users of... 25th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Revising down our 2020 global oil supply forecast Lower production in Saudi Arabia and the lower-than-expected US output growth have led us to revise down our global oil supply growth estimates. We now expect the market surplus to be smaller than we... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back in focus There was a rude awakening for the oil market last weekend as a missile and drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, allegedly backed by Iran, removed around 50% of Saudi capacity. As the dust settled... 20th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest... 20th September 2019 · 23 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
