OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) OPEC’s November Report, and recent comments by the organisation’s secretary general, suggest OPEC is becoming more optimistic about the prospects for demand for its crude in 2020. This may be an... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose, in part owing to higher domestic production but there was also a significant outflow from the strategic reserve. We think that above-trend US stocks will remain a... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The palm oil price rally has further to run Palm oil prices have soared recently in part because of unfavourable weather, which has clouded the outlook for supply. At the same time, we think that demand from the world’s top consumers is set to... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The palm oil price rally has further to run Palm oil prices have soared recently in part because of unfavourable weather, which has clouded the outlook for supply. At the same time, we think that demand from the world’s top consumers is set to... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Investors still not convinced … Commodity price moves were surprisingly muted this week considering the news that the “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China may involve the lifting of some of the tariffs already in place... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports reflect weaker activity China’s commodity imports were generally weak in October, and we expect volumes to remain subdued in the coming months given our forecast of a further slowdown in China’s economy. 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Higher gold price forecast, but big picture unchanged We have revised up our end-2020 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver as we now expect a smaller rise in US Treasury yields next year. That said, we retain our view that a softening in safe... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Aramco IPO won’t have a big impact on the oil market We think that the forthcoming Saudi Aramco IPO is unlikely to have much of an impact on Saudi Arabia’s oil policy or on global oil prices either now, or in the future. Instead, Saudi output in the... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose on the back of higher net imports and a fall in inputs to refineries. We expect a slowdown in the US economy to lead to further builds in inventories in the coming... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Metals Chart Pack October’s price gains a false dawn A cocktail of an apparent softening of US-China trade tensions coupled with several supply outages pushed the prices of most base metals higher in October. Perhaps somewhat unusually, the price of... 6th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices to tread water, for now Despite signs that the global economy continued to slow in October, only coal prices fell. While we expect global growth to remain subdued in the year ahead, we think that a recession will be avoided... 5th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Trade talks remain the key to investor sentiment There were few big moves in commodity prices this week despite some encouraging data out of China and the US, and a 25bp cut in the Fed Funds rate. Admittedly, the economic data were not uniformly... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals to muddle through in 2020 We have revised up our end-2020 forecast for the prices of gold and silver to reflect the fact that we now expect roughly as much monetary easing by the Fed as the market. Meanwhile, we have trimmed... 1st November 2019 · 17 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack October’s optimism set to fade The apparent thaw in the US-China trade dispute gave a lift to the prices of most industrial commodities in October. However, we are sceptical that a lasting resolution to the trade conflict will be... 31st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Focus Measuring the risk premium in the oil price The September attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia re-ignited discussion of the “risk premium” in the oil price. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, we have created a methodology... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks surged last week owing to a jump in net imports. Over the coming months, we expect a slowdown in the US economy to lead to further builds in inventories. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
