Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts likely to drag on Saudi recovery The OPEC+ oil quota cuts announced today are unlikely to have a significant economic impact on most Gulf economies, but they will on Saudi Arabia. The direct impact of the output cuts means GDP growth... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC springs a surprise Today, OPEC+ announced that it will deepen its oil output cut by 0.5m bpd to 1.7m. More surprising, is that it looks as though Saudi Arabia will cut supply by a further 167,000, despite the fact that... 6th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Awaiting direction Despite somewhat more encouraging economic data releases, industrial metals prices struggled to find direction in November mainly owing to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade... 5th December 2019 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC+ to roll over output cuts There has been mounting speculation that OPEC+ is set to agree deeper cuts at its upcoming meeting. However, we still think Saudi Arabia’s concerns about its loss of market share, and little appetite... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell last week on the back of increased refinery throughput. However, with stocks well above their historical average, and with the US economy set to slow, this latest report doesn’t... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to roll over, but not deepen, output cuts Commodities prices were little changed this week. Prices were initially boosted by President Trump’s comments that the US and China were in the “final throes” of a trade deal. But they pared their... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose last week, largely on the back of an outflow from the government’s strategic reserve. Over the coming months, we expect slowing economic growth and faltering crude... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Iranian oil output at low risk of long-term decline Since the imposition of US sanctions in May 2018, Iranian oil production has fallen by nearly 45%. For our part, we think that output would recover quickly if sanctions were lifted. Moreover, we see... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Russia to put OPEC+ compliance at risk There is a high risk that a ramp-up in production in Russia pushes OPEC+ output above quota. While we don’t expect this to have a significant impact on prices it would be an additional reason for... 25th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India remained at historically low levels in October. Our view is that the gold price rally is now behind us, and that ongoing weakness in consumer demand will be one of the... 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities still on the sidelines The prices of most industrial commodities traded in a narrow range this week in part owing to stronger-than-expected PMI data from the US and elsewhere. However, the bigger picture is that global... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities could play catch-up in 2020 Recent market moves, most notably in US equities, suggest to us that there may be too much bad news priced into commodity markets. Accordingly, we expect a modest rise in commodity indices in 2020... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The rally in US lumber prices is not over yet The price of lumber has surged in recent months. We think that prices will continue to rise in 2020 primarily on the back of ongoing strength in US housing starts and falling lumber supply from Canada... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose, in large part due to a significant outflow from the strategic reserve. That said, we expect stocks to remain relatively high as the economy slows and demand falters. 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
