Commodities Update China’s commodity imports end 2019 on a high China’s commodity imports were strong in December, and in 2019 as a whole, in part because a number of one-off structural factors boosted volumes. Looking ahead, we expect growth in commodity imports... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Our key calls for the agriculturals in 2020 We think that the prices of wheat and soybeans will tumble this year on the back of high stocks. However, the outlook is more encouraging for the prices of some of other agricultural commodities, such... 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Devil in the detail of US-China trade deal Oil prices yo-yoed last week, as US-Iran warmongering faded almost as quickly as it started. Similarly, the price of gold spiked, but ended the week unchanged. Meanwhile, the market reaction to the... 10th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Key energy forecasts for 2020 We think that oil prices will rise in 2020, as the market moves into a small deficit. In contrast, we expect natural gas prices to fall owing to strong supply growth and for this, in turn, to dampen... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to rise irrespective of the risk premium Following the recent rise in US-Iran tensions, we estimate that the risk premium in the oil price briefly turned positive. After all, prices rose without there being any disruption to the physical... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is America at risk of Dutch disease? The surge in crude oil and natural gas production over the past decade has eliminated the petroleum-related trade deficit, but there is a risk that, echoing what happened in other countries that... 9th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Settling in for some near-term weakness December was a relatively strong month for both precious and industrial metals, with prices rising almost across the board. A weaker US dollar and safe-haven buying buoyed gold prices, while base... 9th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Natural gas and coal prices to fall further in 2020 The easing of US-China trade tensions and the escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions has caused oil prices to surge in recent weeks. In contrast, the prices of natural gas and coal have slumped... 9th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Key commodity forecasts for 2020 We are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for commodities prices this year. While global economic growth will remain subdued, we think it will start to revive over the course of 2020. Therefore... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack December’s moves point to better times ahead The prospect of a ‘Phase One’ trade deal between the US and China buoyed commodity prices in December. Although we expect trade tensions to remain elevated, we think that most commodity prices will... 6th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell sharply last week as exports soared and there was a step-up in refinery activity. We expect exports to remain high given constrained OPEC+ output. In contrast, product... 3rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran tensions to take centre stage Oil prices received a shot in the arm following Friday’s assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top ranking Iranian general. Regardless of geopolitical events, we expect constrained supply growth and a... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update A few comments on the escalation in US-Iran tensions The oil price has jumped today on the back of the US assassination of a powerful Iranian military leader. Given the backdrop of improved investor sentiment in the oil market, prices could remain... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil price spike, strong growth to continue in Vietnam Oil prices have jumped following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, one of Iran’s most powerful generals, but they would need to rise much further before higher prices started to have a major impact on... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Soleimani’s death and the threat of US-Iran war The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a major figure in the Iranian regime, in a US airstrike last night has significantly raised the chances of an outright conflict between the US and Iran. We’ve... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
