Commodities Update Strong dollar not necessarily a major headwind Our forecast for the US dollar to remain strong in 2020 suggests downward pressure on commodities prices. However, we would argue that there are instances when commodity prices can still rise -... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Don’t read too much into the collapse in the BDI Disruption to China’s commodity imports, owing to the outbreak of coronavirus, has sent the Baltic Dry Index into freefall. While freight rates should recover as and when China’s industrial activity... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Sense of calm may not last The prices of most industrial commodity prices rose this week on hopes that the coronavirus is near to its peak and that economic activity in Asia will start to pick up soon. The announcement of... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to remain in the doldrums LNG prices should recover from their current coronavirus-related lows by end-year. But given the significant oversupply in the market, prices are likely to remain historically weak. 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) OPEC production fell sharply in January, but this was mainly the result of supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. Otherwise, there was little indication in the latest OPEC monthly report that the group... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update China’s December gold imports a flash in the pan Chinese imports of gold surged in December, while India’s foreign purchases remained in the doldrums. Looking ahead, we expect high local-currency prices in India coupled with a slowdown in Chinese... 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The oil market to flip into a deficit after Q1 The economic disruption caused by the coronavirus means that we now expect the oil market to be in a surplus in Q1 2020, as opposed to the deficit that we had previously envisioned. However, providing... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Middle East oil supply shocks and the risk premium In this Energy Watch, we look at how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have historically affected the risk premium in the oil price and what could happen to this premium in the future. We... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Hoping for some better times ahead Signs of a recovery in industrial commodity demand were emerging at the beginning of 2020. Indeed, the economic data have improved and investor concern surrounding the US-China trade war has eased... 6th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose again last week in line with the seasonal norm. While small falls in US product stocks suggest demand is holding up, it would take a surge in US consumption to even go some of the... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Coronavirus to keep prices low in Q1 Energy prices slumped in January owing to concerns about the hit to demand from the coronavirus outbreak. The evolution of the epidemic over the coming weeks will determine how lasting its impact will... 5th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Metals Outlook Recovery still base case, but coronavirus big risk A sharp decline in China’s economic growth in Q1 as a result of the coronavirus outbreak now seems certain. This will be a significant negative for metals demand, as China is the world’s single... 5th February 2020 · 18 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will the coronavirus affect Indonesia? Indonesia’s direct ties to China are relatively small, which makes the economy less vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus than other countries in Emerging Asia. The main channel through which... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Turnaround in global growth to hit gold demand If the coronavirus is eventually brought under control, we think that 2020 will mark a turnaround for gold demand. ETF inflows are likely to shrink as a more benign macroeconomic backdrop stunts safe... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Virus fears to drive prices for some time yet Commodity prices, and energy prices in particular, have been hard hit by the outbreak of coronavirus in China and the prospect of lower global commodities demand. There is still too much uncertainty... 4th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs already old news China’s PMIs dipped in January, but they offered little indication of the state of the economy in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Though a slump in Chinese activity in Q1 now seems almost... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
