Africa Chart Pack Africa: Oil prices, virus outbreak batter economies Given the pace at which the coronavirus is disrupting activity both in Africa and globally, most of the backward-looking figures released this month probably tell us very little about the current... 26th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose a touch last week. We expect bigger increases in the coming weeks given that refineries have announced plans to curb output in response to the virus-related slump in product... 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update How the coronavirus impacts the agriculturals Stockpiling and labour shortages associated with the coronavirus have supported the prices of some agricultural commodities, particularly the grains, in recent weeks. However, once the virus-related... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Deflationary fears a bad omen for gold Fire sales of gold have seemingly given way to safe-haven buying following yesterday’s unprecedented intervention by the Federal Reserve. Providing the Fed has injected sufficient liquidity to defend... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices won’t necessarily follow oil down While the price of Brent has dropped by nearly 60% since January, agricultural prices have so far held up comparatively well. Although we wouldn’t rule out agricultural prices falling further, the... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices still on thin ice Industrial commodity prices slumped this week amid virus-related economic disruption in the US and Europe and rising concerns about a deeper economic downturn in Asia, particularly China. Meanwhile... 20th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update WTI to trade at a premium to Brent by 2021 Earlier this week, the virus-related economic disruption and the prospect of a surge in OPEC+ supply pushed the Brent-WTI price spread near to zero. Although it has since rebounded, we think the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, MENA virus responses ramp up The news that Saudi Arabia will deepen fiscal austerity suggests that, despite oil prices falling to their lowest levels since the early 2000s, the authorities have no immediate plans to reverse... 19th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Update What higher OPEC+ supply means for the oil market OPEC+’s decision to abandon output constraint has been a factor behind the ongoing slump in oil prices. In our view, higher OPEC+ supply will weigh heavily on US shale output, prices and the risk... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest US stocks data went largely unnoticed today as prices continued to plunge on concerns about the spread of coronavirus. But, for what it is worth, we expect stocks to climb in the coming... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update When will commodities find their feet? As commodity prices continue to flash red, this Update summarises how we think things will play out from here. In the near term, we suspect that further price falls are in store, regardless of policy... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Coronavirus to continue to weigh on prices Energy prices have crashed in recent weeks as the coronavirus has disrupted economic activity and reduced demand. Meanwhile, on the supply side, OPEC+ failed to agree to deepen its oil output cuts. We... 16th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still some way from the bottom Commodity prices tumbled this week, echoing moves in other financial markets. Oil was among the worst performers as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will ramp up output from April, after... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Gold to find its feet later in the year In the last few weeks, we have revised down our forecast for global economic growth this year owing to the hit to activity from the coronavirus. At the same time, we now expect looser global monetary... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Oil price collapse a positive amid market rout The plunge in oil prices over the past week means there’s a good chance that India records a rare current account surplus over the coming quarters. This should help to ensure that the rout in local... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
