Metals Watch Picking apart the silver price Silver is often described as having a strong price correlation with the business cycle, owing to its numerous industrial applications. Others cite its safe-haven appeal. In this Metals Watch, we... 18th May 2020 · 9 mins read
Energy Update Natural gas price convergence to be short-lived In recent weeks, all three major natural gas benchmarks have traded at more-or-less the same price. Rather than a structural shift in the market, we think this probably reflects regional prices simply... 18th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity Oman is one of the most vulnerable economies in the Gulf to a period of ultra-low oil prices but we think that financial support from its neighbours will avert the need to abandon the dollar peg. Even... 18th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly China to the rescue? This week has provided further tentative signs of a revival in commodities demand. China’s industrial production bounced back in April and weekly data in the US suggest that the pick-up in gasoline... 15th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly fell last week, adding to growing evidence that the US oil market has passed the worst. That said, a sustained recovery is not on the cards for some time yet... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The corn market to move into a surplus next season While we generally agree with the USDA’s latest projections for 2019/20, we suspect that they are being too optimistic on agricultural supply in 2020/21. Nevertheless, we expect a pick-up in corn... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) OPEC production jumped up in April, but this will prove a one-off given the agreed output cuts from May onwards. We expect OPEC compliance with the cuts to be fairly good in the coming months as... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Global oil supply to fall to a five-year low Low oil prices, OPEC+ production cuts and delays to investment should reduce global oil supply by over 6% this year. This is one reason why we expect prices to end the year higher. 11th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Labour market conditions even worse than they look The labour market is in a far worse place than even the bleak headlines suggest. The unemployment rate rose to 13% in April, but it would be 30% if we included all the people that lost jobs or did not... 8th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Investors may have got ahead of themselves Industrial commodities prices posted strong gains this week on the back of signs of a relaxation of quarantine measures in Europe and the US, which fuelled hopes that demand would recover soon... 7th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports look set to fall China’s commodity imports have held up well so far this year, but weak external orders and subdued domestic demand point to lower volumes in the months to come. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices to tread water for now The prices of most commodities struggled in April against a backdrop of moribund global demand. That said, the performance of energy commodities was mixed: while Brent crude and Henry Hub gas rose in... 5th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still a bumpy road ahead Despite a raft of terrible economic data, industrial commodity prices ended the week broadly flat, except for oil prices which rose sharply. Attention is turning to the potential relaxation of... 1st May 2020 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Why have commodities underperformed US equities? The partial recovery in the S&P 500 suggests a return of investor risk appetite. But commodity indices have plumbed new lows. We think a couple of points are worth making about this apparent... 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2020 World Gold Council Demand Trends While a surge in ETF inflows offset weak physical demand in Q1, we don’t expect this to be repeated over the coming quarters. After all, many of the factors that have boosted the investment appeal of... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Texas regulator unlikely to succeed where OPEC failed Next week, the Texas Railroad Commission could mandate measures to curb oil production in Texas for the first time since the 1970s. However, even if they do decide to curtail output, we think that the... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
