Commodities Update Natural rubber to regain some of its bounce by 2021 Consumption of natural rubber (NR) will be hit by sharply lower vehicle production this year. That said, we think that a revival in both demand and oil prices later in the year should give a lift to... 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ to extend duration of deeper output cuts OPEC+ is expected to meet in the next few days. Despite reports of rifts amongst its members, we think that it will agree to extend its current 9.7m bpd production cut for at least another month. 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Focus Wounded auto sector could haunt palladium for years We expect the palladium market to remain in a deficit this year as both demand and supply plummet. Palladium supply should bounce back reasonably quickly, but the medium-term outlook for palladium... 4th June 2020 · 15 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Recovery in industrial metals has further to run May was a good month for metals prices. The ongoing revival in economic activity in China helped to lift the prices of most industrial metals, while investment demand for precious metals remained... 3rd June 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Newcastle coal prices to remain grounded Coal prices should receive their usual seasonal uplift later this year. Nevertheless, we think that the average price of Newcastle coal will fall in 2020 and 2021 owing to weak demand and strong... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices to pick up as demand slowly revives The prices of most commodities rose in May on the back of the ongoing recovery in China’s economic activity and a gradual easing of lockdown conditions in the US and Europe. We think that most prices... 2nd June 2020 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Renewed US-China tensions cloud price outlook The close of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) yesterday brought with it little in the way of additional news, leaving the huge fiscal stimulus announced last Friday – which was unambiguously... 29th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Commodities Watch Chinese stimulus not enough to prompt a price rally China’s stimulus spending in 2009 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) prompted a dramatic recovery in commodity prices. In this Commodities Watch, we discuss the stimulus plans outlined... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report We think that the market is right to dismiss the latest chunky build in US crude stocks as it was largely driven by a rise in imports, which is likely to prove a one-off. Instead, a further fall in US... 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Geopolitics take a back seat … for now Quarantine measures associated with COVID-19 have seen geopolitical disputes, such as US-Iran tensions, seemingly fall under the radar of energy traders. That said, the national security law imposed... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The Brazilian real and commodity prices Our forecast that the Brazilian real will recoup some lost ground by end-2020 should put upward pressure on the prices of its commodity exports. However, other factors, such as the health of the... 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Apr.) The latest data couldn’t be clearer: gold demand in the top two importing nations all but vanished in April. Imports should rise in the months ahead but will remain low by past standards. In any case... 26th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) The latest data add to the evidence of a growing divergence in the trend in steel output between China and the rest of the world. And as infrastructure spending in China is stepped up over the coming... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Some initial thoughts on China’s NPC At the time of writing, we still lack the detail on China’s policy plans. That said, the headline expansion in the budget deficit and plans to boost credit growth are unequivocally positive for... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch The outlook for US shale production Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, oil demand has plummeted, and prices have slumped. In this Energy Watch, we consider what this means for the US shale industry. 21st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week, US commercial crude stocks fell for the second week running. Digging deeper, though, reveals that the rebound in gasoline demand – which has so far underpinned much of the growing market... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
