Industrial Metals Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s five-year plan is too barebones to move prices Commodity prices have largely shrugged off the conclusion of China’s Fifth Plenum and discussion of the 14 th Five-Year Plan (FYP). This is not so surprising as the main takeaway from the event is... 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on China’s Five-Year Plan Data showing that the Chinese economy continued to rebound last quarter and that growth was accelerating heading into Q4 gave a lift to most industrial metals prices this week. Given China’s share of... 23rd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru to benefit most from China’s recovery Latin America’s non-oil economies will see larger benefits than most other countries from China’s rebound. This provides grounds for cautious optimism about the prospects for Chile and Peru. But for... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
Long Run Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC’s oil production rose sharply in August on the back of higher output quotas. However, if concerns persist about global oil demand, which was discussed at length at yesterday’s JMMC meeting, then... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price fall and Gulf fiscal strains, tourism reopening The fall in the price of oil this week has put further pressure on fiscal positions in the Gulf, and most governments are likely to run large budget deficits over the rest of this year. For now... 10th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Mexico’s 2021 budget The frugal 2021 budget proposed by Mexico’s government underlines policymakers’ fixation about public debt risks and concerns about their credit rating. Meeting policymakers’ new and ambitious targets... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery stutters Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has faltered in recent months and the backdrop of fiscal austerity, the partial suspension of pilgrimages and oil production cuts mean that it is likely to remain slow... 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack On the way up, but we expect bumps in the road Ongoing fiscal stimulus in China, coupled with the recent depreciation of the US dollar, is boosting commodity prices. China’s commodity imports are also growing strongly, but we suspect that the pace... 2nd September 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) The continued increase in production in July helps to explain why the price of aluminium has been a relative underperformer so far this year. And with yet more additions to China’s smelting capacity... 20th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Global oil demand to remain weak throughout 2021 We think that it will take over a year for oil product consumption to recover to pre-virus levels. This in turn will limit crude oil demand for the next 18 months or so and any near-term price gains. 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Outlook Post-GFC-style revival to continue, for now … Despite base metals prices already nearing pre-virus levels, we think that the rally has further to run. The key factor underpinning our positive outlook is the planned policy stimulus in China, much... 31st July 2020 · 19 mins read
