Commodities Update

A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non...

17th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Peak oil debate slightly misses the point

The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only...

14th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Emissions in China are close to a turning point

China’s rapid uptake of clean power means that it is on track to overachieve on its target of reaching peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. That said, the pace of decline will be slow at first...

13th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand

The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a...

12th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Commodity-exposed stock markets may disappoint

Although we expect equities in general to fare well over the next year or so, we think that falls in most commodity prices will weigh on the energy and materials sectors. That would be bad news for...

10th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point?

Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully...

10th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ temporarily sinks oil prices

The decision by OPEC+ last Sunday to increase output from October caught investors by surprise and sent oil prices sinking to below $78 per barrel early in the week. Ahead of the meeting, investors...

7th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Attention turns towards the return of La Niña

A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE exceptionalism, Egypt reshuffle, Saudi mortgages

The decision by OPEC+ to roll over oil production cuts until October will reduce economic growth in the Gulf this year, but the UAE has emerged a clear winner. Higher oil output there will lead to a...

6th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. OPEC+’s decision to roll over its production cuts into Q3 will keep supply...

6th June 2024 · 1 min read

Energy Chart Pack

Energy Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts into Q3 will keep global oil supply...

5th June 2024 · 1 min read

Metals Chart Pack

Metals Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The rally in industrial metals prices over the last few months has begun to unwind and, because it...

4th June 2024 · 1 min read

Energy Update

OPEC+ to turn on the taps, oil prices to fall in 2025

At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed through and that output...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth

The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read