Commodities Chart Pack Investor optimism may prove short-lived Most commodity prices rose in February encouraged by falling COVID-19 infections and the vaccine rollout, which point to a recovery in economic activity and higher commodities demand later in the year... 1st March 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Bond market turmoil a wake-up call for commodities A spike in government bond yields and subsequent sell-off in equity markets caused the broad-based rally in commodity prices to go into reverse late in the week. That said, most industrial commodity... 26th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Commodities Watch Taking stock of China’s agricultural “buying spree” In this Commodities Watch, we consider the impact that the recent surge in Chinese agricultural commodity imports has had on prices and whether it will be sustained. In our view, the rapid growth in... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Biden’s foreign policy and its energy market impact President Biden’s stance regarding international climate policy and the Iranian nuclear deal is very different from Donald Trump’s, but we are sceptical that he will be able to enact any significant... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Despite the plunge in crude oil production, US crude stocks rose last week as refinery throughput plummeted. We expect the former to recover more quickly, which will support stocks in the near term. 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch A closer look at the Indian oil sector In this Energy Watch, we examine the outlook for India’s oil sector. We begin by outlining its importance in the context of our macroeconomic research, before considering how the demand and supply... 23rd February 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Focus The future of European natural gas pipelines Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines... 22nd February 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Weekly Biden’s State of the Union might boost metals prices Abnormally cold temperatures in the US, particularly Texas, have forced a significant share of US oil wells and refineries offline this week. Oil prices initially surged on the back of this disruption... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update We expect commodities to underperform US equities Although we expect oil prices to rise a bit further this year, we doubt that we are in the early phase of a new “super cycle” in commodities. In fact, we project that the returns from commodities will... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks plunged last week owing primarily to a rebound in exports. Next week, inventories could rise as the deep freeze in the southern parts of the US has knocked out several... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook 2020s unlikely to be a rerun of the 1930s and 2000s We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s... 16th February 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update US lumber prices to fall back from lofty heights We think that slower growth in US housing starts and increased supply will weigh on the price of US lumber over the coming quarters. That said, prices are likely to remain elevated relative to past... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Revising up our end-year oil price forecast The price of Brent crude oil breached the $60 per barrel mark this week for the first time in over a year, in a continuation of its strong performance since COVID-19 vaccines were announced in... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) The slight easing of quotas meant that OPEC oil production rose in January. However, output will fall back again this month as Saudi Arabia implements its 1m bpd of voluntary production cuts. 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell last week, while implied product demand strengthened. We expect these trends to continue over the coming months, as COVID-19 containment measures are eased. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
