Africa Economics Update Gains from commodity price moves to flame out African economies have benefitted from the rally in commodity prices in recent months, but we think that most of the gains from the terms of trade improvements are behind us. In the coming quarters... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect gold to lose some of its lustre as real yields rebound While the recent rebound in the price of gold may owe something to greater demand for safe havens in response to faltering equity prices, as well as to cryptocurrencies coming under pressure, most of... 18th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Deal or no deal, Iran’s oil output set to rise this year A revival of the nuclear deal with Iran would pave the way for sanctions to be lifted, boosting the country’s oil production and weighing on prices. By contrast, while we still expect Iranian output... 17th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Watch How the American Jobs Plan could affect commodities In this Commodities Watch, we take a first look at some of the most important features of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure package, known as the American Jobs Plan, from a commodities... 14th May 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly The price rally may be starting to run out of steam Aside from coal and natural gas, the prices of most commodities fell this week in tandem with the declines in global equity markets. Investors are concerned about rising inflation, particularly in the... 14th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for EMs The major oil producers have seen the biggest gains in exports from the rally in commodity prices this year, although most of this windfall is likely to be saved which will limit the boost to economic... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining investment boom 2.0 unlikely The surge in the price of iron ore will lift Australia’s export revenues and boost mining profits, but we suspect that the impact on domestic demand will be modest. And with the price of liquefied... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China’s FYP points to lower global agricultural prices There are three overarching themes present in the agriculture document associated with China’s 14th Five-Year Plan – improving food security, continuing with the modernisation of the rural economy and... 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks held fairly steady last week despite a collapse in exports. While both exports and product demand will probably increase over the coming weeks, crude stocks may have... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s natural gas dreams evaporating? Security problems in Mozambique are putting huge natural gas investment projects at risk, clouding the country’s otherwise bright economic outlook while reigniting default concerns. 12th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How far will rising commodity prices boost inflation? We think that the broad-based rally in commodity prices will go into reverse later this year, so the upward pressure on inflation in advanced economies should be temporary. But there is a clear risk... 12th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Rally in metals prices looking increasingly stretched Commodity prices pushed higher yet again this week. Most notably, the seemingly unassailable climb in industrial metals prices saw the price of copper push above $10,000 per tonne for the first time... 7th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks plummeted last week primarily because net imports nosedived to a record low. While net imports will probably recover in the coming weeks as exports ease back, we think that crude... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread likely to remain narrow We think that the absence of pipeline capacity constraints, a strong recovery in US oil demand, and increased output from OPEC+ members will all help to ensure that the Brent-WTI price spread remains... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Outlook A recovery in demand to support prices The rebound in global economic activity this year will lead to a strong pick-up in demand for energy commodities. Arguably, this has already happened in the gas and coal markets as industrial activity... 4th May 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Weekly The demand outlook remains uncertain It was another good week for commodity prices, with the exception of precious metals. Somewhat better-than-expected Q1 GDP and survey data, particularly in the euro-zone, was one factor fuelling... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
