China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Making sense of the rise in exchange stocks Exchange stocks of base metals have risen this year, which usually suggests that markets are well supplied. But much of the recent build in stocks has been opportunistic and driven by financial... 29th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large... 28th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Rebound in prices likely to be short-lived Most commodity prices recouped some of their post-FOMC losses this week. Investor concerns surrounding Fed tightening have seemingly eased, which weighed on the dollar. At the same time, news that a... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Kuwaiti budget, Iran’s next president, OPEC+ meeting Kuwait’s FY2021/22 budget approved this week in parliament adds to signs that high oil prices are prompting a shift to looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. Elsewhere, the landslide victory for Ebrahim... 24th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports may be peaking EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks declined again last week. However, with both implied demand for most products and refinery activity close to pre-pandemic levels, we think the pace of draws will stabilise. 23rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May) Growth in global steel production is still running high in year-on-year terms owing to the low base a year earlier. However, daily production in May was somewhat lower than April, as output in China... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly This week’s sell-off a sign of things to come Commodity prices fell sharply this week following a more hawkish than expected Fed meeting and a disappointing batch of activity data out of China. Both developments are in line with our forecast of... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial slowdown in China a headwind for prices The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week. However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices to rise a little further as OPEC+ hold the line In what proved to be one of the shortest OPEC+ meetings ever, the group agreed this week to stick to its previously planned increase in output in July. Oil prices rose sharply on the back of the... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks declined for the fifth week in a row, owing to the robust economic recovery and a further increase in inputs to refineries. With demand set to rise further, and few signs of... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Strong month for metals not a sign of things to come May was a strong month for the prices of most metals, but we suspect that this may be as good as it gets. After all, if we’re right in expecting economic growth in China to slow in the second half of... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
