India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
Energy Update Sky-high European gas prices unlikely to be sustained We think a reversal of the factors that have fuelled the recent surge in European natural gas prices, namely high LNG prices, constrained supply and depleted stocks, will bring prices back down to... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) Global aluminium output growth softened in June, largely due to power cuts in China’s key aluminium-producing province of Yunnan. But these curbs have started to be relaxed in recent weeks, which... 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Higher OPEC+ production to weigh on oil prices The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Beginning of the end for copper rally After reaching an all-time high in May, the price of copper has since come off the boil. And we think it will fall further over the next eighteen months or so, as a combination of weaker economic... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July) OPEC’s oil production increased sharply in June, primarily because Saudi Arabia continued to unwind its voluntary production cut. Output should rise further in July on the back of larger quotas, and... 15th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell for the eighth week in a row, and domestic production is now showing signs of life. This may add to the pressure on OPEC+ to relax output cuts more quickly and avoid a... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities China’s industrial metals imports to weaken further China’s imports of most industrial commodities continued to fall in June. We expect import volumes of near all commodities, but especially the industrial metals, to ease further in the months ahead as... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Headline trade growth was stronger than expected last month, partly thanks to an increased supply of semiconductors. But exports remained below their recent peak and we still think shipments will... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Waiting for the next OPEC+ move The oil market will probably struggle to find direction in the coming weeks until there is some resolution to the impasse created by the failure to reach unanimous agreement at the last monthly OPEC+... 9th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities An emboldened UAE scuppers the OPEC+ united front Oil prices were rising in June even before the July OPEC+ meeting ended in disarray, without agreement. Strong growth in demand as economies lift virus-related restrictions is expected to continue to... 6th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil to outperform in Q3 We expect strong growth in oil demand this quarter as virus-related travel restrictions are lifted in most of the largest consuming countries. At the same time, supply will remain relatively... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s oil reform, Angola’s debt, SA restrictions Nigeria’s long-awaited Petroleum Industry Bill is on the verge of making into law, but it probably comes too late to propel a marked turnaround in the oil sector and will not resolve many other issues... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell for the sixth consecutive week amid the ongoing rebound in product demand as the virus-related restrictions continue to be lifted. That said, if OPEC+ decide to gradually raise... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What might a fall in oil prices mean for rotation? While the drop back in oil prices which we forecast would probably mean an end to the recent outperformance of the energy sector, we doubt it would halt several other features of the rotation trade. 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
