Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jul.) A slump in China’s steel production in July led to a dramatic slowdown in growth in global steel output. While China’s production may stabilise or rebound a little in the coming months, it appears... 24th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update A few points to make on extreme weather events Some of our forecasts for commodity prices this year have been blown off course by extreme weather events. As economists we cannot pretend to have insight into future weather patterns, but we can... 23rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Delta to continue to weigh on prices Commodity prices mostly fell this week on the back of a stronger US dollar as well as mounting concerns over the demand outlook. China’s July activity and spending data, published on Monday, were... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) Aluminium prices have recently been supported by reports that government-imposed power rationing has weighed on production in China, but there is little evidence of this in the latest data for July... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf and oil prices, Egypt remittances, PIF’s Call of Duty The latest drop back in oil prices is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers in the Gulf and we still think that there is a window of opportunity for fiscal policy to be loosened. Elsewhere... 19th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tide is turning against steel production in China The government in China has stepped up measures to tackle pollution and excess capacity in the domestic steel sector over the past few months. This adds weight to our view that steel production, and... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report While crude stocks fell again last week, gasoline inventories rose a little and there was a further pullback in implied gasoline demand. Given the ongoing rise in virus infections and some re... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cooling Chinese growth to weigh on metal prices China’s latest activity data are further evidence of a slowdown in its economy. This aligns with our view that industrial metals demand will soften in the year ahead, putting downward pressure on... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Alarming UN report could spark more green spending The UN’s latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report warned that ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions are a ‘code red for humanity’, which could give further momentum to the... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Three recent trends we expect to last We expect several of the trends that have tentatively (re-)emerged in financial markets recently to persist. 12th August 2021 · 13 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC’s oil production soared in July as Saudi Arabia unwound the bulk of its voluntary output cut. Although OPEC left its demand forecast unchanged, we think that the near-term demand outlook has... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s fall in crude oil and gasoline stocks suggests that growth in demand in the US is continuing to outpace growth in supply. However, following a strong recovery from its pandemic-induced... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Growth in US oil production to remain sluggish While we expect both drilling activity and oil production in the US to pick up slightly over the next year or so, we doubt it will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This should keep the... 11th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What our commodity forecasts mean for Latin America We expect that most commodity prices will come off the boil, which will weigh on recoveries across Latin America, particularly in Peru and Chile. While the brightening domestic picture will boost... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Lower China commodity imports here to stay The latest trade data out of China adds to the evidence that demand growth in the world’s key commodity consumer is slowing. This supports our view that the broad-based rally in commodity prices from... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
