Commodities Weekly Energy price rally maybe running out of steam Commodity prices generally rose this week, helped by the US senate approving a deal to increase the federal debt ceiling. After a rollercoaster of a week, European natural gas prices ended the week... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Coal shortage could take steam out of the recovery India is the latest major economy to be facing concerns about energy supply, fuelled by a recent drop in coal inventories. With the economy very reliant on coal for electricity generation, persistent... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Commodity prices and global equity markets We think the prices of most commodities will fall over the next couple of years, and that this will prove to be a headwind for many countries’ stock markets. But the strength of that headwind will... 7th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lessons from Brazil’s 2001/02 energy crisis The threat of energy shortages looms over Brazil once again. The country’s experience with electricity rationing in 2001/02 offers a useful guide about how the situation may pan out. We estimate that... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can Europe keep the lights on? The extraordinary rise in European gas prices in recent weeks has raised the possibility that, as a last resort, European governments may need to ration the supply of electricity to businesses or... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update Dim outlook for the silver price We think that weaker physical demand, higher real US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar will mean that the recent poor performance of the silver price is set to continue over the next couple of... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Natural gas prices now untenably high The price of European natural gas (TTF) surged by around 35% this morning, before crashing back down on Putin’s reassuring comments about Russian supply. The latest price moves appear speculative, and... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Gas & coal surge to support other commodity prices Natural gas and coal prices soared in September. In turn, this has raised the output costs of industrial metals, most notably those which are especially energy intensive such as aluminium and steel... 5th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall as market returns to surplus in 2022 We expect a gradual normalisation in demand growth and a rebound in supply will start to weigh on oil prices from the fourth quarter. So far this year, growth in demand has outpaced supply, helping... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy prices surge as rally looks overdone Commodity prices generally rose this week, but especially energy prices, which continued to surge on constrained supply, unseasonably high demand and low stocks. That said, we think the supply... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Loose fiscal policy in CEE, Russia’s natural gas windfall Government draft budgets approved for 2022 this week in Czechia and Poland and further details of social support in Hungary suggest that fiscal policy will remain supportive of growth in Central... 1st October 2021 · 10 mins read
Commodities Watch Latest natural gas price surge will unwind At the time of writing, global natural gas prices are soaring. Dramatic moves in global natural gas prices are nothing new and not even very surprising given the extreme weather over the past year or... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China’s power shortage curbs metal supply & demand China’s manufacturing PMIs for September diverged, but both still point to subdued commodities demand. What’s more, the surveys were conducted before power shortages started to constrain activity... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Sep.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 29th September 2021 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A jump in crude oil production led to the first stock build in eight weeks. However, with output still constrained and demand set to remain strong, stocks are likely to remain low for some time to... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Headwinds facing metals exporters It looks like EM exports rose further in August and, possibly, September too. And while we expect them to decline over the coming quarters, they will remain elevated. However, China’s property... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
