Global Economics Update Higher oil prices won’t stop inflation falling next year The recent upward revision to our oil price forecast does little to alter our view that inflation will fall in 2022. Even if oil prices don’t fall as we expect them to and they stay at their current... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil woes to hold back recoveries in Angola & Nigeria Falling oil production has weighed on the Nigerian and Angolan economies, with the latter likely to suffer its sixth consecutive annual decline in GDP this year. While output should rise next year, we... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Strong exports contributed to the first drawdown in stocks in four weeks last week, supporting already-high crude prices. What’s more, stocks at the hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, also fell and they are... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) Slower growth in aluminium output in September was probably linked to surging power prices. The combination of constrained output and soaring production costs will support aluminium prices in the near... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the energy price surge mean for the Gulf? Higher oil and gas revenues are likely to prompt a modest shift to looser fiscal policy in the large Gulf economies, although Bahrain and Oman will still need to stick to austerity. Meanwhile, if OPEC... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Coal is back in fashion, but not for long Coal prices are likely to remain high over the next six months as high demand weighs on already-low stocks. Prices should drop back next year, though, as demand growth moderates and supply improves. 19th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Pulling the plug; power rationing in China Power rationing in China has raised concerns about metal supply. But perhaps less obvious is that power rationing will also negatively affect demand if manufacturing activity is curtailed. On balance... 19th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
UK Economics How would the economy cope with electricity shortages? There is an outside risk that the UK could face some limited short-term rationing of electricity this winter if weather conditions were to be unfavourable. This risk isn’t yet significant enough to... 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy price rally may spill over to other commodities Most commodity prices increased this week. Optimism over electrification, which was a hot topic during LME Week, seemed to feed through into higher industrial metals prices. But the prices of energy... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update The implications of accelerated renewable electricity use Accelerated adoption of renewable electricity will cause demand and prices of coal and natural gas to fall over the long run. While we think the global economy will handle this transition well, there... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan playing with fire, Russia’s commodity boom After putting the final nails in the coffin of the Turkish central bank's credibility with last month's surprise interest rate cut, the grave started to be dug this week with the firing of three MPC... 15th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A large fall in the refinery utilisation rate drove another increase in stocks last week, although utilisation rates are normal for the time of the year. And with output set to remain constrained... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Oct.) OPEC moved closer to its collective target output last month. However, it is now clear that if the group were to answer calls to raise output, it would involve abandoning the current quota system and... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Downturn in China’s commodity imports intensifying China’s imports of key commodities slumped almost across the board in September. The main exception was imports of coal, which soared in response to recent power shortages. We expect coal imports to... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update How high energy prices affect other commodity prices As energy prices hit multi-year highs, we look into the link between energy and non-energy commodity prices. It is clear that industrial metal prices track energy prices the most closely over time... 11th October 2021 · 4 mins read
