Commodities Update

Sell-off in oil markets has gone too far

The sharp fall in oil prices over the past week shows that fears of a US recession have so far outweighed concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But we think that oil prices have fallen too far...

6th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil prices rise on Middle East conflict, cut down by US

The oil market's fairly muted reaction to events in the Middle East this week only temporarily reversed the recent downward trend in oil prices. On the face of it, however, the risk of a spike in oil...

2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain challenging...

31st July 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Weak demand holding back S. Africa’s economy

The fading drag from load-shedding was widely expected to allow a recovery in South Africa’s economy this year, but this hasn’t materialised. We think that weak demand is to blame, itself a symptom of...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Harris’ green credentials; metals slump to end

While many of Vice President Kamala Harris’ climate policies are likely to be similar to Biden’s, her track record suggests she could take a firmer stance on fossil fuel production. However...

26th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Olympic medals to lose their shine before long

The start of the Paris Olympic Games today suggests that there will be renewed interest in gold, silver and bronze. We suspect that athletes will be disappointed by the fact that the Olympic medals...

25th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections

Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants...

25th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Europe natural gas price to stay lower than Asia LNG

Booming demand for LNG in Asia this year has helped push prices in Asia to a sizeable premium over those in Europe. We think that this premium will remain above 10% over the rest of the year but will...

24th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine?

Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might...

23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s energy woes need a permanent fix

The electricity blackouts that have blighted Egypt this summer may be nearing an end. But in the absence of new major gas discoveries, in the longer run rising energy demand will result in renewed...

23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Industrial metals prices crumple, gold hits a new peak

The weaker-than-expected economic activity data for China in Q2 weighed on industrial metals prices early in the week. The mood was further darkened by the lack of any specific stimulus announcements...

19th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications

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Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.

Commodities Update

Gold jewellery to lose its lustre under high prices

Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will...

17th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Traditional gold price drivers come back into focus

The ~18% rise in gold prices seen this year has largely defied the traditional logic of demand drivers. Indeed, the surge in gold prices between February and April took place against a backdrop of a...

12th July 2024 · 4 mins read