Japan Economics Weekly Support measures won’t prevent inflation reaching 2% The government is preparing fresh support measures to lower prices of petroleum products, which will reduce the drag on household incomes and will prevent inflation from breaching 2% for now. We still... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What might be the impact of wider embargo on Russian energy? While not our base case, a complete Western ban on imports of energy commodities from Russia would probably send the prices of many soaring. We suspect that such an outcome would have some key... 24th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of going cold turkey with Russian oil An EU embargo on Russian oil would push up oil prices and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis facing consumers. However, while there would be logistical challenges, oil supplies would be easier to... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude oil stocks fell last week, driven by a decrease in net imports and greater refinery inputs. Demand also inched higher, but we suspect high prices will limit further gains... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch Central and extreme scenarios for coal and natural gas In this Energy Watch, we look at what the war in Ukraine means for the thermal coal and natural gas markets in 2022 . Under our central scenario based on existing Western sanctions, we think Russian... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) Global steel production fell in y/y terms in February, driven by a double-digit contraction in China. Our expectation is that high energy costs and softer construction-led demand growth in China will... 22nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) High power prices in Europe continued to cause production curtailment in February but there were signs of a rebound in China’s production. Looking ahead, we expect supply to remain constrained for now... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Volatility to linger in commodity markets Commodity prices remained extremely volatile this week. After all the supply fears associated with the war on Ukraine, a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China raised concern about both demand and... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose last week but remained historically low for the time of the year. Demand took a tumble and will probably struggle to rise much further with gasoline prices so high. 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities at multi-year highs The surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine will lead to a deterioration in India’s external position, with the current account deficit widening to almost 4% of GDP this year... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) Although OPEC oil production rose in February, it remained well below target. And while OPEC left its 2022 oil demand and supply forecasts unchanged, it hinted at revisions due to “geopolitical... 15th March 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the commodity terms of trade shock in FX markets Although they have fallen back over the past week, we expect the prices of most commodities to remain elevated relative to their recent past. We will be revising our currency forecasts to reflect... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Indian wholesale price inflation remained near historic highs in February, and it is likely to stay elevated in the near term given the recent surge in commodity prices. 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly US-Venezuela ties, Brazil fuel price hike A meeting this week between officials from the US and Venezuelan governments could be the first step on a long road towards sanctions being lifted on the country. That would be necessary for Venezuela... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil embargoes and asset returns: lessons from 1973-74 If the Russia-Ukraine war escalated, we would expect some of the recent patterns in relative asset market performance to continue to echo those during the 1973-74 oil crisis. That said, we wouldn’t... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
