Europe Economics Update How would Germany be hit by a gas embargo? A full embargo on Russian energy would force Germany to ration gas supplies to its most gas-intensive companies. This would have unpredictable knock-on effects which would cause a recession. While the... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose last week, beating market expectations of a decline, due to rising domestic production and another sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. If sustained, higher... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack War in Ukraine to continue to dictate prices for now Commodity prices remain extremely volatile owing to the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine, and we doubt that they will find a clear direction anytime soon. However, assuming the war... 5th April 2022 · 12 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in March as high commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine began to take a toll on the sector. Given that fuel and gas prices have only climbed higher since... 4th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to prices are building Signs of weaker demand in China in the latest PMI data and the announcement that the US will sell off a large chunk of its strategic oil reserve suggest that the downside risks to commodity prices are... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China demand will still be key in driving metal prices The war in Ukraine and high energy prices will keep industrial metal prices elevated for now. But once supply fears ease, the weakness in China’s demand will be exposed and will weigh on prices. 1st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Stocks may lag bonds if commodities keep on surging Given that the past couple of months has seen the outbreak of war in Ukraine, surging commodity prices, growing concerns about inflation, and increasingly hawkish noises from the world’s major central... 31st March 2022 · 13 mins read
Commodities Watch Grain prices to stay historically high Grains prices have skyrocketed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine as fears of supply disruption have intensified and energy costs, which feed into agricultural production costs, have soared. In... 31st March 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities High volatility to persist while war rages on Commodity prices are as volatile as they’ve ever been. We don’t think volatility will ease until the war in Ukraine ends, because only then will we know the true extent of the Russia-related supply... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Commodities Lessons from the 1970s for commodity markets The experience of the 1970s suggests that the ongoing war in Ukraine and its effects on commodity prices will reshape commodity markets for years to come. Most immediately, elevated prices are likely... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update European steel prices to remain high for some time yet We expect European steel prices to remain elevated this year given sharply higher production costs and disruption caused by lower imports from Russia and Ukraine. That said, prices should ease back... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Countless risks hanging over commodity markets Taking the lead from energy, most commodity prices rose this week as hopes of an imminent ceasefire in Ukraine faded and Western leaders met to consider further sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Putin’s... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think Latam currencies will give up some recent gains Following their strong appreciation against the US dollar since the start of the year, we expect Latam currencies in general to reverse some of their gains over the remainder of 2022. 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EU struggles to agree on next steps for energy EU leaders have struggled to agree on whether to impose more curbs on Russian energy and on how to best support households and firms in the face of spiralling energy prices. But most national... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
