Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to enable stocks to build Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen so far this year as high power costs have choked the supply of refined metals. Yet, we expect stocks to build as a weaker economic outlook for key metal... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) OPEC lowered its forecast for Russia’s oil production this year, but still expects it to rise. By contrast, we think Russia’s output will fall and see rising pressure on OPEC to step up output in... 13th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update High fuel prices to suppress US oil consumption We expect US fuel prices to remain historically high this year due to supply constraints. As a result, we suspect that oil consumption in the US will remain seasonably low for much of the rest of the... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th May 2022 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Three positive stories from frontier markets There has been plenty of doom and gloom surrounding the outlook for frontier economies over recent months, particularly Sri Lanka and Tunisia. But there are some places where we hold more upbeat views... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks will be boosted in the coming weeks by the ongoing release of strategic reserves, regardless of what is happening with domestic oil demand. That said, there are now clear signs... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand and supply pull prices in opposing directions Energy prices continue to be pummelled by upward pressure related to fears of supply shortages and downward pressure from signs of slower economic growth, tighter monetary policy and a stronger US... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the ruble now too strong? EU oil embargo gets close The Russian ruble continued its remarkable rally this week, rising to a two-year high of 66/$ but we think it may now be too strong and that the Russian authorities will soon ease some restrictions on... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker electronics demand will weigh on tin We expect weaker electronics demand and a recovery in supply from South-East Asia to weigh on the tin price, dragging it lower by end-year to $34,000 per tonne from around $41,000 currently. 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and the Russian oil embargo, GCC follows Fed The EU’s plans to phase out imports of Russian oil would increase the chances that the Gulf economies raise oil output more quickly. This would provide a significant fillip to economic recoveries this... 5th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland well prepared for life without Russian gas Poland’s government has shown no signs of meeting President Putin’s demand to get gas flows restored, but we think the economy is relatively well placed to deal with a loss of Russian supplies. As... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Not just Indonesia export ban boosting palm oil prices We expect Indonesia’s latest ban on palm oil exports to be short-lived, but constrained supply and the high prices of other edible oils, coupled with elevated oil prices, will support the price of... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks rose last week on higher imports, lower exports and less crude oil being used by refineries. Implied product demand, meanwhile, was little changed and towards the lower end... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Commodities Update PMI readings bode ill for commodities demand The global manufacturing PMI fell back in April. Admittedly, it was a sharp drop in China’s PMI that weighed on the global aggregate, but there are warning signs in the PMIs of most of the major... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
