Commodities Update Rebound in China’s PMIs likely to be a one-off We think that the recovery in China’s PMIs in June was driven by the lifting of virus-related restrictions rather than an improvement in underlying economic conditions. Accordingly, we think that... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Where could we be wrong on agricultural prices? We expect that the prices of agricultural commodities will fall back gradually over this year and next, but remain historically high. However, the volatility of prices in recent months and the... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks fell last week as refineries raised production of petroleum products. However, refineries will probably struggle to raise output much further, with many of them operating near... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf a bright spot We think that rising oil production and high global energy prices will result in rapid GDP growth this year and next across the Gulf economies. Growth is likely to be well above consensus expectations... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas crisis heightens German recession risk Recent developments have further increased the chance that there is a complete end to Russian exports of gas to Germany. If this occurred, it would lead to a substantial fall in manufacturing output... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update The outlook for staple agricultural commodities We think the prices of agricultural commodities will fall back in the coming months, but most will remain historically high owing to tight supply, concerns about future supply and high energy prices. 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Non-energy prices only have so much more to fall Most commodity prices fell this week as demand concerns picked up due to ongoing monetary policy tightening by major central banks. Speaking to the US Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, Federal... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May) Global steel production continued to pick up in May, led by higher output in India and China, which more than offset the ongoing decline in Europe’s production. The rise in input costs, efforts to... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Codelco strike threat, Chile and the copper price A threatened strike at Chile’s copper giant, Codelco, could knock as much as 0.3%-pts off quarterly GDP growth for every week that workers are on strike and worsen the country’s balance of payments... 21st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) Global aluminium production has increased steadily since the start of the year in large part owing to a rebound in China’s output. At the same time, demand is relatively subdued, which suggests that... 20th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply concerns to dominate in gas markets European natural gas prices surged this week on renewed supply concerns, as Russia once again cut gas supplies to Europe and the US Freeport LNG export facility closed for six months. The huge price... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Europe’s gas supply looking increasingly fragile Russia’s decision to once again cut supplies to Europe makes the region’s gas supply look increasingly precarious. The move will slow regional stock builds and keep prices historically high. 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese refined output will only plug some of the gap Robust Chinese refined metal output, alongside subdued domestic demand, has combined with constrained refined output elsewhere to provide greater export opportunities for China. But there are limits... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
