Energy Update Europe’s natural gas price will be higher next year We expect European natural gas prices to be high in 2023 as the EU will need to replace Russian gas supply for the entire year. This means demand for LNG imports will be strong, even if gas... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly European natural gas supply fears ease, for now The big story this week has been the roughly 20% week-on-week fall in the European natural gas price, as mild autumn weather has combined with weak economic activity and the still-high gas price to... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) The acceleration in year-on-year production growth in September paints a prettier picture of supply than reality. The global economic downturn and high energy prices will weigh on supply from here. 20th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Spilling the beans on coffee Whilst we think coffee prices could have further to fall due to a strong US dollar, heightened investor risk aversion and the global economic downturn, constrained supply should put a floor under... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in a tug of war This week, commodity prices continued to be caught in the middle of an ongoing tug of war between tight supply and deteriorating demand. We ultimately expect that to play out in two different ways... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of gold’s resistance to the surge in TIPS yields We suspect that the reduced liquidity of inflation-protected Treasuries vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts is one reason why the price of gold has not fallen as much as might have been expected... 14th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back with a bang in the oil market Crude oil prices rose by around 10% this week as OPEC+ announced a 2m bpd cut to its production quota, which all but guarantees that the market will be in a deficit in Q4. Accordingly, we are sticking... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think even-higher oil prices will push yields up Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think oil prices could rise further without pushing US inflation compensation, and therefore Treasury yields, any higher. 6th October 2022 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight Securing raw materials in a fractured world China’s dominance in the supply of some key materials needed for the green transition means that US-aligned governments will continue efforts to secure supplies from “friendly” sources, which could... 6th October 2022 · 14 mins read
OPEC Watch Any OPEC+ cut will not be as large as it seems OPEC+ may announce a major cut to oil production quotas tomorrow. But with the current quota not being met, the actual hit to oil supply will be much smaller. We estimate that a 1m-barrel-per-day (bpd... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ looks set to agree a cut to output quotas The US dollar completed a round trip this week, continuing its relentless rise against most currencies early in the week, but then started to fall back from Wednesday afternoon and is now a touch... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Constrained supply to bolster grains prices for longer We now expect lower supply of grains over the coming months as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to reduce Black Sea exports and extreme weather conditions mean global stocks have been drawn down. We... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Making sense of sky-high coal prices in Asia Thermal coal prices in Asia rose to record highs in early September and have only fallen back slightly since. This was despite no major supply disruptions and in contrast to falls in other energy... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of the global energy price shock across EMs The surge in energy prices this year (particularly gas) will have the biggest impact on Central and Eastern Europe and push economies there into recession. There will be an impact in the rest of the... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell slightly for the first time in four weeks, while product stocks decreased much further. The latter was mostly owing to the sharp increase in product demand. But we... 28th September 2022 · 2 mins read
