Commodities Chart Pack Falling Russian supply to keep oil prices high in 2023 We think slower global economic activity and a somewhat stronger US dollar will weigh on commodities prices in the coming months. However, the recession should prove relatively shallow and we expect... 5th December 2022 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Long-term impact of energy price caps may be positive The proposed caps on domestic prices of thermal coal and natural gas are unlikely to be a major drag on mining investment because the bulk of coal and gas production is exported. And by helping to... 5th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Digesting the upside surprises to food inflation While food inflation has surprised to the upside in major DMs, it seems to be at or near a peak. We expect a combination of base effects and an easing of underlying price pressures to drag on food... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Outperformance of European equities may be short-lived Despite the rally that began in October continuing throughout November, US equities still underperformed their European counterparts in common-currency terms last month. Admittedly, exchange rate... 2nd December 2022 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Qatar-Germany gas deal It seems likely that OPEC+ will opt to continue with October’s agreement to cut output quotas by 2mn bpd when the group meets on Sunday. That said, there are further signs that the group will become... 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Watch “Food vs. Fuel” is back, but needn’t raise alarm Global food prices are at highs last reached in 2007-08 and 2011-12, when a sharp rise in global biofuel production sparked the “Food vs. Fuel” debate. In this Commodities Watch, we find that... 28th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Event China Drop-In: zero-COVID at the limits – domestic and global consequences 1669734000 As China's new infection numbers hit a record, its zero-COVID policy is coming under severe strain.
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Sep.) Metals demand growth improved markedly in the third quarter, but demand is unlikely to hold up as global economic activity deteriorates further. 24th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Industrial metals to come under further pressure Industrial metal prices are starting to come under pressure again, after rallying by 10% in the first two weeks of November. We think that weak global demand will drag prices lower over the next few... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US oil output will edge higher next year High oil prices have led to a recovery in US oil investment this year. But US crude production gains have been tempered by rising business costs and an emphasis on returning profits to shareholders... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Black Sea grain deal extension reduces risks to EMs Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine should help to keep a lid on wheat and corn prices over the coming months, reducing upward pressure on inflation in the emerging... 21st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly China COVID concerns weighing on prices Most prices fell this week as soaring COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns about the country’s commodity demand. Given the negative impact of COVID-related lockdowns on travel, it is no surprise... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Negative dollar-oil correlation likely to persist in the short run The negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of oil has reasserted itself in recent months, and we think it will persist as the looming global recession pushes the dollar higher and... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
