Commodities Update China’s oil imports to pick up from here China’s imports were weak in January-February, but commodity imports fared better. What’s more, we think crude oil imports, in particular, will pick up from here given the resurgence in travel demand. 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity markets look to the US and China It was another fairly quiet week in commodity markets, with prices caught between diverging narratives. Rather perversely, robust economic data in advanced economies weighed on commodity prices. This... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Mounting downside risks to our price forecasts We think prices will drop a little further in the coming months as economic slowdowns in advanced economies weigh on commodities demand, even as China’s economic recovery takes hold. However, the... 2nd March 2023 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity demand to rise The February PMI data out of China suggest economic growth is rebounding rapidly. While growth should moderate over the second half of year, it still points to higher metals and crude oil demand... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Cash is king as “higher-for-longer” worries take hold While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31st January and 24th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data... 28th February 2023 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus Population trends to lower wheat demand from 2040s We expect the wheat price to remain high this year as events in Ukraine and drought in other key producers hurt supply. Although the wheat price should drop back after this, the worsening impacts of... 22nd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook 2022’s sell-off unlikely to set the stage for strong returns The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t... 21st February 2023 · 20 mins read
Commodities Weekly US inflation a downside risk to our price forecasts Most commodity prices fell this week due to concerns about the persistence of high inflation in the US. Data showed US CPI inflation coming in slightly stronger than expected in January, pushing up... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Further cuts to Russian oil production still on the table Russia’s crude oil production has, up until now, been remarkably resilient in the face of Western sanctions. But the recent announcement of a voluntary cut seems to be the first concrete sign that... 17th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Upward pressure on renewables costs to be transitory A combination of higher interest rates and rising raw material prices have interrupted the long-term declines in the costs of renewables and battery power, and could push costs up further in the near... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The impact of civil unrest in Peru on copper Anecdotal reports and high frequency data suggest that ongoing civil unrest in Peru is beginning to choke off activity at key copper mines. But, if recent history is anything to go by, output can... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) OPEC’s monthly report for February did not make any major revisions to its forecasts. That said, the group is clearly worried about both the outlook for global demand and supply from Russia. We think... 14th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equities and commodities may move in lockstep again this year Despite the recent divergence, we think equity and commodity prices will move increasingly in tandem over the next year. 13th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Higher commodity prices may boost some equity markets We think stock markets in several commodity-intensive countries will benefit from China’s ongoing reopening, which, in our view, will mean commodity prices rise further by the end of the year. 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE’s energy crisis: looking beyond this winter The energy crisis in Central and Eastern Europe has lost some of its bite as natural gas prices have slumped and countries have made good progress in replacing Russian energy supplies. This has... 6th February 2023 · 25 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Too soon for a sustainable rally We think prices will ease back in the coming months as optimism about China’s reopening is tempered and slower economic activity in advanced economies weighs on demand. However, the prospect of Fed... 3rd February 2023 · 13 mins read
