Asset Allocation Outlook We doubt that risky assets will remain so resilient Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which... 31st March 2023 · 21 mins read
Commodities Weekly Advanced economies to dictate prices With the latest shudders in financial markets seemingly contained, most commodity prices ground steadily upward over the week. Oil prices did receive a boost from supply disruptions in Iraqi Kurdistan... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Not out of the woods yet Just as it seemed as though stability had been restored in financial markets, a renewed bout of selling of bank stocks took place in Europe this morning. And there are a number of smaller US banks... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices battered, financial conditions to be in focus Commodity markets were not spared the effects of widespread turmoil in the global banking system. Most prices ended the week lower as investors fled risky assets. The gold and silver prices bucked... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities and the spillovers from financial markets While commodity prices have also been caught up in the chaos stemming from the banking sector turmoil, so far the impact hasn’t been too alarming as price falls for most commodities haven’t been... 17th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update First thoughts on banking stress and commodity prices Commodity prices have tumbled as concern about a banking crisis has grown. The downside risks to our forecasts, which we recently attributed to higher interest rates, now include banking sector stress... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus The economic impact of fracturing on Australia The fracturing of strategic supply chains into US and China trade blocs threatens Australia’s existing significant trade with China but also presents Australia with an opportunity to align its trade... 15th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly US and China data to steer prices next week Even though US non-farm payrolls increased by 311,000 in February, the report contained signals that were consistent with slowing inflation, prompting a fall in US interest rate expectations today... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Metals Demand Monitor Metals Demand Monitor (Dec.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed to a halt at the end of last year. Even with some more recent improvements in advanced economy activity growth, metals demand probably kicked off the year on... 9th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Unpacking China’s NPC for commodities The National People’s Congress reports struck a cautious note on the outlook for economic activity in China this year. Fiscal stimulus will be limited and efforts to prevent “disorderly” expansion in... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Mar. 2023) Most commodity prices fell and futures curves shifted lower this past month as higher interest rate expectations in advanced economies clouded the demand outlook. This is consistent with the downside... 7th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports to pick up from here China’s imports were weak in January-February, but commodity imports fared better. What’s more, we think crude oil imports, in particular, will pick up from here given the resurgence in travel demand. 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity markets look to the US and China It was another fairly quiet week in commodity markets, with prices caught between diverging narratives. Rather perversely, robust economic data in advanced economies weighed on commodity prices. This... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Mounting downside risks to our price forecasts We think prices will drop a little further in the coming months as economic slowdowns in advanced economies weigh on commodities demand, even as China’s economic recovery takes hold. However, the... 2nd March 2023 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity demand to rise The February PMI data out of China suggest economic growth is rebounding rapidly. While growth should moderate over the second half of year, it still points to higher metals and crude oil demand... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Cash is king as “higher-for-longer” worries take hold While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31st January and 24th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data... 28th February 2023 · 13 mins read
