Commodities Update

Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties

Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider...

2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output...

30th September 2024 · 1 min read

Climate Economics Monthly

Draghi on green policies; UK farewell to coal power

Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness, published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. Meanwhile, with the imminent closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal...

30th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East

The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own...

30th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling...

27th September 2024 · 0 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China stimulus a silver bullet for metals? Think again

The stimulus packages announced by Chinese policymakers were the main reason behind the chunky increases in industrial metals prices this week, and explain why they performed better than most other...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

A soft patch

The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn...

26th September 2024 · 44 mins read

Commodities Update

What to make of Saudi Arabia’s oil market plans?

Today’s news that Saudi Arabia will proceed with unwinding its voluntary oil output cuts from December does not change our thinking on the oil market balance; we still expect the market to be in a...

26th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon

Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any...

26th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand

While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint

A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and...

25th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong)

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say...

23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read

Event

Drop-in: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 – Where it’s going right (and wrong)

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Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme is passed its halfway point with clear evidence of major societal and cultural changes.

Commodities Update

Weaker demand for coal set to cool prices in 2025

The imminent closure of the UK’s last coal power plant is a further reminder that thermal coal’s days in Europe are numbered. In Asia, coal will remain a major source of power for many years to come...

23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read