Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly LNG: Will the huge investment pay off? Australia is set to overtake Qatar as the world’s largest LNG supplier by 2018. However, recent trends in energy markets pose some headwinds for LNG exporters. In particular, the slump in oil prices... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks rose sharply last week as refinery runs fell and imports climbed. Meanwhile, oil production slipped back and demand for oil products rebounded. 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports show signs of bottoming out EM exports continued to fall sharply in August, but the early data for September provide some hope that the worst may now be over. The year-on-year pace of contraction in export values is likely to... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities fight back Commodity prices have rebounded since the middle of September as fears about the Chinese economy have diminished. Many industrial commodities were also supported by talk of supply cuts, while precious... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover, but not until next year A combination of weak Chinese demand, destocking in North America and poor economic conditions in Brazil and the CIS is weighing on steel demand this year. At the same time, global output has been... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Long-term outlook for US natural gas prices still bright We remain positive on the outlook for US natural gas prices over the next few years, despite the current weakness, as the cleaner fuel should continue to take market share from coal. 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Precious metals rally as sentiment improves The prices of precious metals (PMs) have rallied since mid-September, as sentiment towards commodities in general improved. While the Fed’s dovishness has been the biggest catalyst for changes in gold... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How long can markets shrug off low stocks? For the most part, LME metal stocks have fallen since the start of September, in some cases to multi-year lows. However, concerns about demand continue to weigh on prices. We expect the low level of... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge in September While the headlines have focused on the weak value data, the pick-up in China’s industrial import volumes suggests that ongoing fiscal stimulus, notably infrastructure spending, and earlier price... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC’s oil output rises, but supply elsewhere set to stall OPEC’s oil production rebounded a little last month, but slower growth in non-OPEC supplies and strong growth in demand should still help prices to rise over the next few years. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s strikes to provide further boost to gold price While the Fed has been the biggest driver of gold prices recently, labour tensions in South Africa could provide a further boost. We believe that the gold market is already quite tight after prolonged... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Brazilian soybean production to push prices lower Although the USDA has revised down its forecasts for this year’s US corn, wheat and soybean harvests, we think ample global supplies will push prices down over the remainder of the year. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What role has the Syrian crisis played in lifting oil prices? The rebound in oil prices can largely be explained by an improvement in sentiment toward demand and mounting evidence of cuts in non-OPEC supply. Admittedly, the escalation of Russia’s military... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Sep.) September data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil stocks rose to the highest monthly level on record. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Digging deeper into China’s coal demand We think that the market is still underestimating the weakness in China’s demand for coal and expect prices to continue to fall over the next few years as this becomes more apparent. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Further evidence that sentiment is bottoming out We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. Indeed... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
