Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2015) Lower commodity prices have continued to weigh on consumption in commodity-exporting EMs. Indeed, there are signs that even in those economies where spending had previously held up reasonably well... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update First global deficit in six years to lift sugar prices in 2016 After surging in early October due to a rise in Brazilian fuel prices, the world price for sugar has remained strong but volatile. Despite poor harvests in Brazil and the EU, further price rises this... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices should recover soon as market rebalances Last week’s slide in the price of crude oil has prompted us to lower our end-2015 forecasts, but we continue to expect a gradual recovery over the coming year. In particular, the latest news on global... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor sentiment remains deeply negative Prices of industrial commodities have taken a battering this week as investor sentiment continues to sour. While Chinese economic data painted a subdued picture of activity in October, in our view... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices likely to perk up Weak producer currencies have supported coffee exports and weighed on US dollar prices. But with depleted inventories, we think a tighter market will put upward pressure on prices next year. 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Demand growth to help soak up excess oil supplies Growth in demand for oil should remain strong over the next few years, despite concerns about slower growth in emerging economies. However, in the long term demand will be constrained by improvements... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Making sense of the China data A deluge of Chinese data this week has coincided with a renewed slump in most metals prices. However, while the headlines have focused on the negatives, our interpretation of the data is that the... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about falling commodity prices? The renewed weakness in global commodity prices, notably oil and copper, is obviously a concern forproducers and will continue to constrain activity in the mining sector. However, the current... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped as production rose again and net imports rebounded. However, demand also recovered as refineries continued to ramp production back up. 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q3 World Gold Council Demand Trends In its latest World Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council outlined an improving picture in Q3. Demand surged by 8% y/y during the quarter, as subdued prices encouraged buying... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC’s production falls, led by Iraq OPEC’s oil production fell in October but remains well above target. Global inventories also remained very high. The market will still take some time to return to balance, with prices set to recover... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Sep.) South Africa’s PGM production continued to fall in September as low prices are threatening miners’ profitability. Lonmin is just the latest example of an industry struggling to keep up with labour... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Can protectionism save beleaguered aluminium producers? With profits under pressure, aluminium producers outside China have recently campaigned for protectionist trade measures in an attempt to defend themselves against cheap Chinese imports. However, we... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Prices fail to heed fundamentals Ongoing declines in stocks of many LME metals have failed to prevent prices from falling further over the last month. Of course, stocks can be subject to manipulation and may not be an accurate... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain & soybean mountains to depress prices further A sharp upward revision to Chinese corn stocks means that global end-year inventories are now expected to be at a record high. With a bloated global supply picture, we think further weakness in the... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Unloved copper set to rebound The price of copper is languishing below US$5,000 per tonne, undermined by negative sentiment towards commodities in general and concerns about demand from China in particular. Nonetheless, the... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
