Emerging Europe Chart Pack 2015: A year of divergence Economic performances have diverged markedly across Emerging Europe this year, due in large part to the collapse in oil prices. Lower energy costs have kept inflation low in Central and South Eastern... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production driven higher by Iraq OPEC production rebounded in November, led by Iraq, which will only add to the glut of oil in the market. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd next year and non-OPEC supply should fall... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong competition to drag grain & soybean prices lower The combination of ample global supplies and strength in the US dollar have weighed on corn, wheat and soybean prices this year. With the likelihood of additional exports from Argentina, we think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Taking stock of 2015 2015 may not be quite over, but this year’s trends in exchange inventories of key industrial metals are clear. For the most part, stocks have fallen, not so much because of strong demand but because... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Input cost weakness means MPC is in no rush to hike The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold again today highlights how the UK is set to tread the middle path between a loosening ECB and a tightening US Fed. A further fall in oil prices and a... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Nov.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that while palm oil production fell sharply in November, a large fall in exports pushed stocks higher. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks registered their first fall in almost three months last week, despite another jump in net imports and a decrease in refinery runs. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the ECB? The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Retail investment to help support silver prices Expectations for a December rate hike by the Fed and a strong dollar have seen the price of silver fall to the lowest level in over six years. But, all is not lost: low prices have triggered a strong... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Oct.) Global central banks continued to add gold to their reserves in October, albeit at a slower pace. However, preliminary data for November suggest that the slump in gold prices might have stimulated... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices should recover in 2016, regardless of OPEC Brent’s (short-lived) dip today below $40 per barrel is a further damning verdict on OPEC’s bungled communications after its meeting last Friday. However, it was never likely that the group would... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports lifted by policy support The value of China’s imports fell once more in November, although the decline was not as large as anticipated. More significantly, commodity import volumes rose strongly, which suggests that low... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to remain under pressure from huge stocks Although cotton is shaping up to be one of the best performing commodities in 2016, its price has been on a downward trend over the second half of the year. We think that large global inventories will... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Nov. – 1st Dec.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 18.7 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the second half of November in the main Centre-South cane-growing... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.) South Africa’s PGM production rose in October after three months of declines. However, labour disruptions and weak prices have forced the largest miners to restructure and cut their capital... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
