Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh slump in oil prices weighs on Gulf equity markets Equity markets in the Gulf have fallen further over the past month, dragged down by the renewed slump in oil prices. Elsewhere, Egypt’s central bank has maintained a tight grip on the pound but... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are commodity markets right to shrug off the Fed? The muted responses in commodity markets to the first hike in US interest rates since 2006 are atribute to the clear communications of the Fed and, in our view, largely justified. Looking forward... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rebounded last week as net imports jumped again, production rose and inputs to refineries fell. The picture was no better in products, with demand for gasoline and distillates... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to recover a little further in 2016 After rising above 15 cents per pound in early December, the price of sugar has slipped back to 14.5 cents more recently. We expect prices to increase slowly through 2016 as a result of lower... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Not all doom & gloom for commodities Although the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis over the past month, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for commodity prices. Indeed, despite the slide... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why commodity markets (still) shouldn’t fear the Fed We have of course addressed the potential impact of higher US interest rates on global commodity markets before. But with the Fed almost certain to hike tomorrow for the first time since 2006, now is... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do the latest falls in oil prices mean for Asia? The boost to regional growth from the recent slide in global oil prices is likely to be quite small unless consumers decide to spend rather than save the latest windfall. 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor sentiment towards PMs still fragile The prices of precious metals (PMs) have continued to fall since mid-November. While expectations for a December rate hike by the Fed and a strong dollar have been among the biggest catalysts for... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the global implications of the latest slide in oil prices? The latest slide in the price of crude oil is clearly unsettling the financial markets, but it should not materially affect the prospects for the global economy. Even if prices remain below $40 per... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Paris agreement another nail in coal’s coffin The agreement in Paris on climate change over the weekend adds further pressure on countries to reduce their carbon emissions. Even though there is likely to be little immediate impact on commodities... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Near-term risks abound, but oil should recover in 2016 Brent crude's renewed slide below $40 per barrel was the damning verdict on OPEC's failure to agree on a number even for what is largely a notional output target. In principle, prices could keep... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What to expect for oil prices in 2016 In this Energy Watch we briefly review oil prices in 2015, a year which many investors will probably be glad to see the back of. We then set out our central forecasts for 2016 and out to 2020. However... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Shrinking mine supply to bolster silver prices in 2016 After twelve years of increases, we expect mine supply to be broadly flat in 2015 and to decline by 3% in 2016 due to shrinking margins and production cuts across the industrial metals industry. While... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium prices set for slow recovery in 2016 Having fallen sharply over the first eleven months of the year, the price of aluminium reached a six-year low in late November, although it has since recovered a little ground. In 2016, we expect... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike in 2016 still likely despite slide in oil prices The unexpected slide in oil prices last week, to a six-year low of about $40pb, has left most forecasters once again pulling down their CPI inflation projections and has led some to speculate that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Inflation to pick up despite lower oil prices November’s consumer prices figures look likely to show that the UK’s brief period of negative inflation has now come to an end. What’s more, although oil prices have fallen further in December, we... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
