Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Constrained supply may not be a panacea for alumina prices Malaysia has imposed a 3-month ban on bauxite mining and with further measures likely to follow, alumina supply could struggle in 2016. That said, demand will also be constrained by slower growth in... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks slipped last week despite a slight increase in production and a fall in refinery inputs. However, a sharp fall in gasoline demand and a huge rise in inventories has stolen the... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The modest rebound in export volumes in November wasn’t enough to offset the much larger decline in the previous month, suggesting that exports contracted over the fourth quarter as a whole. As things... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A bit of a breather in December The prices of industrial metals recouped a little lost ground in the final month of 2015, but still fell sharply last year. The relative resilience in December probably reflected a number of factors... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update LNG to the rescue? A surge in LNG exports means that, despite a slowdown in the growth of iron ore exports, resources exports will probably continue to offset some of the ongoing falls in mining investment. That said... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price to rally in 2016 despite US headwinds We expect further Fed tightening and renewed dollar strength to continue to weigh on the price of gold over the next year or so. Nonetheless, we still see scope for a partial recovery driven by a... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A mixed December closes a bleak year for commodities Broad commodity indices fell in December on the back of plummeting oil prices. But outside of energy, commodities withstood the first Fed rate hike in ten years better than many had anticipated... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Saudi-Iran tensions unlikely to provide lasting boost to oil prices The latest flare-up in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran is one of two main factors undermining global equities today, although we believe it has been much less important for financial markets... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will commodities be top of the flops again in 2016? 2015 was a year to forget for most investors. Commodities were routed ... again. Equities struggled, especially in emerging markets. And bonds generally failed to shine. There should be more to cheer... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad news from China kicks off an unhappy New Year Worries over China’s economy still look overdone to us, but today’s headlines are clearly unhelpful for sentiment towards industrial metals. More positively, the prices of crude oil and gold appear to... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks saw the largest fall since early July last week, despite a slight increase in production, as net imports dropped sharply. However, product demand also declined, with production of... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Our six key themes for commodity markets in 2016 2015 has of course been a difficult year for those, ourselves included, who have had anything positive to say about commodities. We will publish detailed predictions for 2016 early in January after a... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Some reasons to be cheerful on copper The price of copper in US dollar terms has fallen by nearly 30% since the start of 2015. The catalyst for the decline in prices has been the slowdown in China’s economy and fears that it may... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover slowly in 2016 After falling sharply in 2015, we expect US steel prices to recover slowly next year as a result of greater trade protectionism, further global capacity closures and improved demand. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling US production to support oil prices in 2016 The current weakness in crude oil prices partly reflects still-high production and stocks in the US, despite the collapse in the number of active drilling rigs there. But we expect the supply response... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
