FX Markets Focus The USD: not the commodity currency you’re looking for The US dollar and the prices of major commodities, in aggregate, have often risen and fallen in tandem since 2021, in contrast to their strong inverse relationship for much of the past two decades... 12th December 2023 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily “Goldilocks” markets may eventually benefit gold too While the gold price has retreated over the past week or so, we think it is set for a renewed rally next year as the Fed cuts interest rates and long-term real yields fall back further. 11th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly COP28 declaration unlikely to drive prices next week In the absence of major news, the majority of commodity prices drifted lower this week. Looking ahead to next week, the end of COP28 is unlikely to drive prices as we suspect that any announcements... 8th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of... 7th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices to stay hot through the holidays Cocoa prices neared a 45-year high in November on the back of concerns about supply from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Constrained supply alongside high seasonal demand will, in our view, continue to... 6th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) The headline CIPS construction PMI barely changed in November, settling at 45.5 from 45.6 in October, and was still below the 50 “no-change” mark. The sharp fall in the commercial balance was offset... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+’s last stand The voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ this week will support oil prices in the first quarter of next year but there is clearly dissent among the ranks. We think OPEC+’s next move will be to... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs may be understating commodity demand China PMI surveys suggest that the economy flatlined in November, but there was good news for commodity demand with the relative strength in the construction PMI. We suspect that underlying activity... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt oil prices will impact the Treasury rally Oil prices have seemingly had little spillover to other financial markets over recent months, and we don’t think anything from the latest OPEC+ meeting is likely to prevent a further rally in US... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response OPEC+ Meeting: Further cuts, but a price rally is unlikely 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly COP28 and OPEC+, Saudi secures 2030 World Expo While COP28 is getting underway in Dubai, attention may be drawn instead to events in Vienna today, where OPEC+ has reportedly agreed to reduce its oil production by a further 1mn bpd. This would... 30th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024, but a challenging external... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ won’t let prices slide Moves in commodity prices have been fairly muted on the week, but this masks a dramatic mid-week plunge and recovery in oil prices. The big news was that OPEC+ announced a four-day delay to its policy... 24th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ drama ensues, Saudi-China currency swap The surprise delay to the OPEC+ meeting to next week has only added to speculation that the slide in oil prices in recent months and the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict could prompt the group to... 23rd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Another sour week for oil, precious metals to shine Gold and silver prices soared this week on renewed optimism that the Fed had hiked to the peak of its monetary policy mountain. We expect prices to rise further when interest rates begin to be cut... 17th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold, geopolitics and the Fed We have raised our gold price forecast to reflect the current heightened geopolitical risk. We think the price will rise further next year as the limited fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict won’t... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
