UK Economics Update Input cost weakness means MPC is in no rush to hike The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold again today highlights how the UK is set to tread the middle path between a loosening ECB and a tightening US Fed. A further fall in oil prices and a... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Nov.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that while palm oil production fell sharply in November, a large fall in exports pushed stocks higher. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks registered their first fall in almost three months last week, despite another jump in net imports and a decrease in refinery runs. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the ECB? The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Retail investment to help support silver prices Expectations for a December rate hike by the Fed and a strong dollar have seen the price of silver fall to the lowest level in over six years. But, all is not lost: low prices have triggered a strong... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response World Gold Official Reserves (Oct.) Global central banks continued to add gold to their reserves in October, albeit at a slower pace. However, preliminary data for November suggest that the slump in gold prices might have stimulated... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices should recover in 2016, regardless of OPEC Brent’s (short-lived) dip today below $40 per barrel is a further damning verdict on OPEC’s bungled communications after its meeting last Friday. However, it was never likely that the group would... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports lifted by policy support The value of China’s imports fell once more in November, although the decline was not as large as anticipated. More significantly, commodity import volumes rose strongly, which suggests that low... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to remain under pressure from huge stocks Although cotton is shaping up to be one of the best performing commodities in 2016, its price has been on a downward trend over the second half of the year. We think that large global inventories will... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Nov. – 1st Dec.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 18.7 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the second half of November in the main Centre-South cane-growing... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.) South Africa’s PGM production rose in October after three months of declines. However, labour disruptions and weak prices have forced the largest miners to restructure and cut their capital... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Little incentive for Saudi Arabia to abandon oil strategy Last week’s OPEC meeting ended with little change to the cartel’s policy, but rumours suggest that Saudi Arabia is softening its stance on production cuts. While we’re probably at the point where the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Banging the tin drum With exchange stocks at six-year lows and refined output falling, the tin market looks increasingly tight. However, stronger demand, which we expect in 2016, is needed for a sustained rise in prices. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US lumber price should recover in 2016 The price of US lumber has fallen sharply this year, despite an ongoing improvement in the US housing sector. This divergence can be explained in part by the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, which... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices to recover next year, whatever OPEC targets We, and we suspect many others, are still trying to work out exactly what OPEC decided at Friday’s meeting. Usually reliable sources have reported that OPEC has agreed to raise its output target from... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read