Commodities Update Why commodity markets (still) shouldn’t fear the Fed We have of course addressed the potential impact of higher US interest rates on global commodity markets before. But with the Fed almost certain to hike tomorrow for the first time since 2006, now is... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do the latest falls in oil prices mean for Asia? The boost to regional growth from the recent slide in global oil prices is likely to be quite small unless consumers decide to spend rather than save the latest windfall. 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor sentiment towards PMs still fragile The prices of precious metals (PMs) have continued to fall since mid-November. While expectations for a December rate hike by the Fed and a strong dollar have been among the biggest catalysts for... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the global implications of the latest slide in oil prices? The latest slide in the price of crude oil is clearly unsettling the financial markets, but it should not materially affect the prospects for the global economy. Even if prices remain below $40 per... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Paris agreement another nail in coal’s coffin The agreement in Paris on climate change over the weekend adds further pressure on countries to reduce their carbon emissions. Even though there is likely to be little immediate impact on commodities... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Near-term risks abound, but oil should recover in 2016 Brent crude's renewed slide below $40 per barrel was the damning verdict on OPEC's failure to agree on a number even for what is largely a notional output target. In principle, prices could keep... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What to expect for oil prices in 2016 In this Energy Watch we briefly review oil prices in 2015, a year which many investors will probably be glad to see the back of. We then set out our central forecasts for 2016 and out to 2020. However... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Shrinking mine supply to bolster silver prices in 2016 After twelve years of increases, we expect mine supply to be broadly flat in 2015 and to decline by 3% in 2016 due to shrinking margins and production cuts across the industrial metals industry. While... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium prices set for slow recovery in 2016 Having fallen sharply over the first eleven months of the year, the price of aluminium reached a six-year low in late November, although it has since recovered a little ground. In 2016, we expect... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike in 2016 still likely despite slide in oil prices The unexpected slide in oil prices last week, to a six-year low of about $40pb, has left most forecasters once again pulling down their CPI inflation projections and has led some to speculate that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Inflation to pick up despite lower oil prices November’s consumer prices figures look likely to show that the UK’s brief period of negative inflation has now come to an end. What’s more, although oil prices have fallen further in December, we... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack 2015: A year of divergence Economic performances have diverged markedly across Emerging Europe this year, due in large part to the collapse in oil prices. Lower energy costs have kept inflation low in Central and South Eastern... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production driven higher by Iraq OPEC production rebounded in November, led by Iraq, which will only add to the glut of oil in the market. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd next year and non-OPEC supply should fall... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong competition to drag grain & soybean prices lower The combination of ample global supplies and strength in the US dollar have weighed on corn, wheat and soybean prices this year. With the likelihood of additional exports from Argentina, we think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Taking stock of 2015 2015 may not be quite over, but this year’s trends in exchange inventories of key industrial metals are clear. For the most part, stocks have fallen, not so much because of strong demand but because... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Input cost weakness means MPC is in no rush to hike The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold again today highlights how the UK is set to tread the middle path between a loosening ECB and a tightening US Fed. A further fall in oil prices and a... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read